Remainder of season and looking into postseason

Basketball
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I was curious about BYU chances for playoff so I did some investigation. I would really like BYU to make the NIT and have a home game. I went to the 2nd NIT game last year and had a blast and would like to go again this year. This is what I found.

BYU has five games left. They are tied for third in WCC, but 4 teams have 5 losses (Santa Clara, BYU, LMU, Pacific). Out of those teams, I think BYU has the 2nd hardest schedule, @ Pepperdine, @ Gonzaga, Santa Clara, @St Marys, San Francisco. Guessing the final games for current 5 loss teams based on simple criteria of everyone loses to Gonzaga or St Mary’s; everyone wins against Portland, Pepperdine, San Diego; and the home team wins for Santa Clara, BYU, LMU, Pacific, San Fran.

Final rankings would be
1 - St Mary
2 - Gonzaga
3 - Santa Clara 10-6
4 - BYU 9-7
5 - Pacific 9-7
6 - LMU 8-8

BYU is currently NET 86. They have 2 Q1 games (@Gonzaga, @St Marys) and 3 Q3 games(@Pepperdine, San Fran, Santa Clara). I don’t think they will see significant movement in NET if they go 3-2 in the final five games.

First game of conference tournament will probably be Q3, maybe Q2 depending on matchup or if teams move up. 2nd and 3rd games of tourney would be Q1 games if they make it that far.

It’s hard for me to find correlations between NET and NIT invites, but a few teams I sampled from last year suggests that BYU is on the bubble for the NIT or maybe on the outside.

So BYU probably needs to beat Gonzaga or St Marys to make it to the NIT. They might have to beat them twice to get a home game. Im not optimistic about seeing a NIT game in Provo this year. :frowning:

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NIT looks for teams with a broad base fan following. BYU is that team. But, BYU has to win the games they should starting with Pepperdine.

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Nice breakdown.

I differ slightly.
Final rankings:
SMC
Zags
BYU
Santa Clara
LMU

I think BYU sits squarely in the NIT window for an invitation. The autobids fill up the NIT bracket which cause much more clutter in the NIT picture than the Big Dance Window. (Regular-season championships that miss the Big Dance get autobids to the NIT.)
So the NIT is the regular season champs plus the teams, like BYU, who are solid in higher ranked conferences.

I would love to see the team in the WCC tournament champtionship but expect them to lose to the Zags…SMC I think is a better semifinal match but not likely a match this year.

Assuming BYU is NIT bound this year, I would expect a home game just because the NIT looks at attendance. Utah Valley BYU first round NIT would be a good game assuming Utah Valley falters down the stretch. I don’t see Madsen’s boys losing the rest of the way; though a conference tourney finals loss may create a nice NIT first round revenge game.
As near as I can tell the NIT doesn’t have the no rematch rule that the Big Dance tries to uphold. If someone knows better I would be interested in seeing a copy of Committees NIT matchup principles.
UVU has a better NET and in a weaker conference means that they will probably dance though…Madsen’s team is on the upswing.

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BYU vs UVU rematch? That would be interesting because who is the better coach Mark Pope or Mark Madsen?
You know I do like pope but I have a hard time how he coach especially when we were leading some 10 points white down to near the end of the game and all of a sudden we lose or come close to losing several times. And Mark Madsen has done remarkable job at UVU which he might be the next guy at BYU.

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I’m actually really going to miss this season when it ends. The W-L record has been disappointing, and I scratch my head at some of the coaching decisions, but I really admire each member of the team. Each has a heartwarming story to tell–some heartbreaking–and each has been a great representative of BYU. Obviously this is the final year for Williams (only year) and George. I’m sure others will be encouraged to transfer.

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Who? None of them would play a lot anywhere else on a P5 team. Fouss is the only one I’d worry about.

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You misunderstood the point of my post, but that’s okay.

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Time to readjust those final wcc rankings…

LMU are the ginat killers of the conference this year. Doesn’t matter that BYU beat them by 30 at home. The two one point choke losses to St. Mary’s and Gonzaga spelled doom for BYU.

BYU may still get a NIT bid but they may not. They will likely finish fifth or lower in conference this season.

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That’s a bad loss this late in the season. I have an idea that they were practicing mostly for Gonzaga and thought they could waltz in to Pepperdine and win.

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The pattern is set. BYU can’t win on the road. Could not watch the game as I was on the road but to let a Pepperdine team score 92 says everything. PU hit 46% of it’s threes, when that happens, the middle opens up (57% from inside).

I see Pope trying to get Robinson more minutes but that backfired, at least in this game, 1-7 from 3land leads to fast break points, fouls etc.

as for post season? Does it really matter at this point? We are undersized, athletically challenged with inconsistent team leadership.

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Agree with all of your points and comments. If BYU can’t win on the road, there isn’t much hope for their next three games. If they lose the next three, what are their chances of making a post season tournament? Not very good. I guess a NIT is a remote possibility but there will be several WCC teams in front of them in the standings and I would guess they would get an invite before BYU, even if it means playing the game in a high school gym.

On another note, some of BYU’s players have looked okay at times and then looked awful at other times. Why is there no consistency? Just when you think they are gaining momentum they stumble and look bad. I’m not sure why Waterman gets to start games, big liability on both sides. Saunders looks great at times, his defense makes him a better offensive player. When he is playing poorly on defense, it carries over to the offense and he is a liability as well. I know they are young but they should probably be playing fewer minutes or not at all until they start showing something more consistently. Johnson is arguably the most experienced and consistent player but he looks awful at times as well. It is like a contagious bug.

Any other thoughts or ideas?

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Today’s game should be interesting if I’m right about the week’s preparation was 90% for Gonzaga and 10% for Pepperdine.

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A trifecta of doom.

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I think your second paragraph captures my thoughts from observation -
Just real young also. It looks like there’s decent talent, but then bone-head stuff.
I feel bad for Fous - clearly best player in my mind. Could have a great in-out offense, but rarely do the others knock down threes.

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Hey fish, do you have a fishing analogy to "undersized, athletically challenged with inconsistent team leadership?

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I do.

When you are the big fish in the WCC pond, it’s hard for the smaller fish who has had plenty of big moments of their own to battle with the big fish. I said this before BYU ever entered the wcc many years ago. The ncaa tourney game where BYU played Gonzaga and Jimmer absolutely wrecked the Zags would not bode well for the Cougars. That was in March, 2011 and BYU joined the wcc in July, 2011.

We have seen the same thing every year since that ncaa tourney beatdown that BYU put on Gonzaga. BYU has never seriously challenged for the wcc title, even though they have had some very good teams during this time. Big fish enters the pond but pond owners love the big fish that is already there because they are afraid the new big fish may move on to a nice lake.

That is what is currently happening. Will BYU thrive in the beautiful, scenic lake of the Big 12? Probably not right away but it will be fun watching them try. I’m sick of the stagnant little pond BYU has been swimming in for the last twelve years. It’s time to move on, future success or failure not withstanding.

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oh yeah
I was filming at Henry’s lake Idaho, home to 10 lb. cutbows. It was the 4th of July, normally 90+ degrees. On this day, we got SNOW and extreme cold. The guide spent more time out of the water changing flies than fishing. experience has taught me that fish have lock jaw with cold front so I just ground it out with the same black fly all day. I counted the guide (who has spent his life fishing this lake) upwards to 20 fly changes. At the end of the day, he had 3 fish, I released 17.

BYU has the talent to win but not the player leadership Who are our seniors? Rudi and George. Nuff said.

Our transfers really let us down this season. Waterman and Robinson were nothing more than outside gunners. how does a 6’11 player get away with zero inside play??? I now understand why Robinson was a bench warmer on his SEC team. single dimensional players really get play time unless they are elite at what they do. It’s like Pope has had to start with HS players with these two. And he had them as starters all season, can you freakin imagine that???

Rudi turned out to be a scorer with poor passing skills; Works great when you have great ball handlers surrounding you but if you are the point guard and that IS your job, 20 turnovers as game is the result. A true freshman is your back up and not just a true freshman but a RM that has not seen a ball for 2 years. DISASTER.

If BYU had a star, we would not lose all these games by a point or two but we don’t, we have a lot of good team players that keep us in games but we can’t get a score when we have to have one. I think Hall has won 3 games with a last minute score, and it seems Johnson won the ISU game with a big 3; Other then that, I can’t think of star power on this team.

So that is your team makeup.

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JCoug and Fish
Thanks for the responses! Spot on! Fish, btw new Robins Roost opens in a few months - fingers crossed