Scouting ECU....why we win

I heard one of the coaches say that ECU will be the best offense BYU faces all year??? We are in serious trouble then as Michigan just blanked us. But on a serious note, ECU is scoring a lot of points and they are doing it with 2 QBs. What really has my attention is the fact that ECU LEADS the nation in 3rd down conversions.

Currently, ECU is first in the nation in third-down conversions, converting on 55 percent of attempts. Meanwhile, BYU ranks 36th in the nation in allowing just 31 percent of third-down conversions. If that happens, BYU will lose.

If their pure pocket passer, Blake Kemp. is in there, BYU can bliz without worry of the QB busting out a big run. If their version of Tysom Hill (James Summers) plays BYU will have to cover escape routes as he will kill us and drag guys will him. What people forget about is that our defense has had to defend against Hill for years so I would think we will be ready for Sommers when other have failed.

On the other end of the ball, BYU can score plenty on this ECU defense.

PLan on a high scoring game in the 30s, maybe even 40s. This will be a great TV game. BYU by 3.

We will score plenty if we can score touchdowns inside the 30 yardline. That has been our problem so far.

That has been BYU’s “problem” for years now. The red zone offense is anemic and BYU is terrible at finishing drives. They dominated UCONN in total yards, not just in the first half but for the game and yet the score was tied 10-10 at the end of the third quarter. This has been a red flag with the Anae run offense for as long as I can remember.

Fans and friends of fans have commented on BYU’s bizarre play calling inside the red zone and their inability to finish drives. When the field goal kicker is taking multiple tries from 20-30 yards (that means the ball is being snapped from inside the 10 to the 15 or 20 yard line) that is a problem that needs to be addressed and changed.

Also, BYU by 3 is not a strong vote of confidence on the home field.

Well, I’ll be at your place Saturday. We can help Anae out. Twitter him during the game

This isn’t a this year thing only, it isn’t a 1.5 year thing, it isn’t a 2 or 3 year thing. Just another example of why Bronco cannot lead BYU out of mid-major status. Anyone objectively looking at all the screw-ups of the past 5 to 6 years and the won-loss records and how those won-loss records came to be would realize that Bronco is a nice man who can lead a mid-major program but is not a SUCCESFUL P5 coach. I have come to the conclusion that Bronco cannot be a successful P5 coach, even with a stable of 4 and 5 star athletes.

I don’t know how you can make that comment since BYU has never had a stable of 4 & 5 star athletes. They have a stable of 2 and 3 star athletes and are still usually competitive when they play P5 schools. They occasionally get embarrassed like they did against Michigan but they have their share of wins as well.

BYU gets 1 or 2 four star athletes a year, and once in a blue moon a 5, and the last time they got a 5 star quarterback he was not only a dud at BYU, but a dud at Kansas and Miami. Maybe BYU ruined Jake Heaps and maybe they didn’t, nobody knows but two other schools couldn’t fix him and one of them, Kansas, was coached by Charley Weiss who was considered an offensive, and a QB, guru. I know the drill, Bronco won’t coddle prima donna high school jocks like he ought to and just can’t relate to 18-21 year old egomaniac boys…

I think if Bronco had a stable of 4-5 star athletes, and they were kids who could live the BYU standards and place their egos 2nd to team success, and he was coaching in a P5 conference his record would be comparable, and maybe better, than what it is now.

I have no interest in coddling students or student athletes - NO MATTER THEIR STAR RATING!

Yes, Bronco has a competitive record against P5 programs, if you are talking about not being blown out and completely embarrassed. But if you, or anyone, really looks beyond the blue lens you will see that he loses much more often than he wins, against top tier teams. And I can accept that, totally - if we stop talking about new years 6 bowls, NC 4 games and top 10 finishes. I can cheer for BYU as a G5 team and I have for several decades…

BYU rarely lands 4 and 5 star athletes - dude, I really, really did not know that. Thanks for enlightening me. I don’t give a tinkers ■■■■ about BYU / Bronco never having a stable of 4 and 5 star FB players. You have the freedom to say what you think Bronco could do IF he had those kind of athletes and I too have that freedom to express my OPINION. Bronco has a nice record against mid-major programs and not so good record against top tier teams.

Our chance at a “special” season ended when Taysom went down–he is truly a generational talent. But I wanted to post because this is an interesting topic–I have not done any empirical analysis, but it SEEMS to me that our recruiting has improved since Guy Holiday and Mark Atuaia and Garrett 2J were added to the staff. I for one thought it was just ridiculously naive in today’s recruiting culture to have a staff with zero full time minorities, and Holiday, Atuaia, and Anae for that matter have made a difference in building recruiting capital with minority kids. Holiday and 2J were also great hires in part because of Holiday’s deep ties to HS football in Texas, and 2J’s strong ties to both HS and Juco ball in CA. If we keep getting better players, we will win more games, regardless of who is coaching. Every HC is stubborn by necessity, and I appreciate Bronco at least admitting the disastrous state of his staff a few years ago and making significant improvements. I also remain in Bronco’s corner and think that it will be a tough job but that fixing our existing warts will be easier than trying to find someone else qualified to come in and do better without causing new warts. Yes our limitations are VERY frustrating to me, but alas, they are what they are.

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You said Bronco couldn’t win against p5 teams even with a stable of 4-5 star athletes and I said he has never had them so it is a little presumptuous to assume he couldn’t if he had the athletes. I am sorry if you are bit thin skinned about having that pointed out to you.

Lavell Edwards didn’t do much better, if any better, against p5 teams because he couldn’t recruit a stable of 4-5 star athletes. I have followed BYU football since the early 60s and can tell you approximately who they have beaten of note since then, by approximately how much, and when it happened and if you look it up you will find that I am correct 99% of the time.

BYU won’t start getting 4-5 star athletes until BYU is in a p5 conference and that being the case it may never happen. Kids will go where the glitz and glitter is. We know that from recent history with Haloti Ngata, Jabari Parker, Frank Jackson, and others.

Bronco has blown out a few p5 teams, Texas twice and Georgia Tech twice, Oregon once, and Oregon St. once (both of the Oregon teams in bowl games). He has no wins against ranked p5 teams that I am aware of. Lavell only had a few wins against ranked p5 teams.

BYU typically beats low level p5 times nearly all of the time, mid level p5 teams about 1/2 the time, and almost always loses to the top levels ones. It has been that way forever even before Bronco. It is what it is and will remain that way until they get nearly all the top LDS kids and a few non-LDS kids willing to live the standards. If they get in a P5 conference it might happen and then BYU will be about what Utah has been, before this season, with a chance in 4-5 years after getting in a P5 conference of actually being a top level P5 team.

I didn’t mean to imply you thought we should coddle 4-5 star athletes. A few around here have implied it. They have stated Bronco can’t coach 4-5 star athletes because he won’t treat them differently than others on the team and give them deferential treatment. I consider that coddling. I am glad you don’t agree with that sort of thing.

I have a few issues with Bronco’s coaching but not in how he handles the players. I think sometimes he doesn’t have his teams properly prepared to play certain games. Whittingham always seems to have his teams prepared.

Aro, about your first paragraph: I am not thin skinned but will correct you that you take me to task for doing what you do and that is stating my opinion. In my opinion, Bronco would not be successful playing against top level opponents even if he had a stable of 4 and 5 star athletes. Much of your 2 posts have been conjecture as most of the posts on here are and so are mine. You say about Bronco, “I think sometimes he doesn’t have his teams properly prepared to play certain games.” and I agree. Bronco has also made some programmatic mistakes. I think those issues would follow him with a stable of 4 and 5 star athletes. Notice I said I THINK.

Aro, with respect to your comment regarding Lavell’s and Bronco’s records against ranked teams, I found the following in a Deseret News article after the 2013 win over Texas:

“The Cougars’ beatdown of the Longhorns isn’t the only time a BYU team has defeated a nationally ranked club, only for that opponent to be much weaker than expected — even outside the final Associated Press poll. The trend is found during the LaVell Edwards era. Under Edwards, BYU went 21-21-1 against ranked teams, but nine of the victories came against teams not found in final rankings.”

I’ve not found anything about victories over teams that ended the season in the top 25, but it appears from the above that Lavell had at least 12. I’m not sure about Bronco. There may have been wins over teams that were not ranked when they lost to BYU, but ended up in the rankings. And the article also did not break down Lavell’s record by conferences. I’m sure some Lavell’s wins were against ranked teams in non-P5 conferences. Of course there is also the issue of how to define a top level P5 team. I guess if they were ranked, they were at least top level that year.

The problems would follow because his non-recruiting problems would remain. All I am saying is that the program would be more competitive with top tier P5 programs if it had more top tier P5 caliber athletes.I would speculate that he would win 8-9 games a year in a PF conference if he had better athletes. I think his record would be similar to what it has been even given the tougher competition if he had better players across the board. If winning 8-9 games a year with a stable of 4-5 star recruits in a P5 conference is considered a failure then I guess we would get a taste of what a coach at USC gets when they only win 8-9 games with a stable of 4-5 star athletes.

I suspect if Nick Saban had several 8-9 win seasons in a row he would start getting some heat.

Don’t have any problem with your last post, I think you say it right. 8 or 9 wins in a P5 conference would be middle of the pack and, IMO, would be unsuccessful in terms of being in a New Years Day bowl or in the hunt for a NC. If Saban had 2 such seasons in a row, his seat would be so hot he could not sit in it.

The BYU QB just have to keep throwing those high passes to our tall receivers and mix it up with some good runs. We just need to outscore them.

Stop the hey diddle up the middle in the blue/red zone. Throw to the high receivers and use some innovative running plays to mix it up.

But is BYU capable of consistently recruiting 4 and five star athletes even if we are in a P-5 conference? I doubt so because of the HC and BYU’s DNA with RM’s and the moral code of BYU. Most four and five star athletes just don’t fit the BYU DNA or the BYU character. If we can get into a P-5 conference, it will be very difficult for us to steadily recruit and keep four and five star recruits in school at BYU. We are better at developing three star and some four star recruits to the next level. Because of all of the above. Maybe we could be competitive in a P-5
conference.But I have my doubts. To me BYU is better in a G-5 conference like the AAC with our DNA. I think we could be very competitive there and be a constant threat for the New Year’s Six Bowls.

I have a thought on the topic of BYU’s wins against ranked teams. Of the 21 wins, 12 of those opponents finished unranked. Here is my “blue goggles” theory as I’ve noticed this over the decades. Of course, some of it is because those opponents should have never been ranked in the first place. But how about this…

  1. Losing to BYU can be devastating and can cause a hangover effect for our opponents. Whether it’s losing to Mormons, white boys, or being surprised by losing to us (see Texas and their fired Def Coordinator Manny Diaz the day after we drubbed them in 2013), teams can fall apart. In other words, I don’t think teams that lose to Alabama have sudden meltdowns.

  2. BYU does play physical football. Maybe teams are beat up after playing us? Teams commonly lay eggs after they play BYU. Obscure stat - from early 2014 to Wk 3 of 2015, the Seahawks opponents lost 14 games in a row the game after their game with Seattle. 14! Playing a physical quality opponent can hurt you the next week. Maybe this helps to explain some of our opponents’ disasters after they play us? Or maybe I’m drinking too much blue kool aid?

I have often wondered why top FCS teams crater after we beat them. It is always frustrating to see BYU beat a high ranked team and then see that team fall far short of expectations. The win over Miami in 90 was the exception and then BYU imploded the last two games of the season. Whenever BYU beats somebody who is supposed to be really good early in the year I almost sit back expect that team to crater. It has happened far too often.

In 1984 BYU opened the season with Pitt in the first ever live telecast of an NCAA football game on ESPN. Pitt was ranked number 3 in the Sports Illustrated preseason rankings. They were very good in 83 and had most of their team back. They were a very good team when BYU played them and they had a bunch of NFL talent on their team…BYU won that game on a bomb from Bosco to Haysbert with about 2 minutes left and Pitt never recovered and ended up 3-8 that year but when BYU beat them they were very good. I watched that game at a friend’s house and remember my Texas fan friend telling me BYU just wasn’t physical enough to hang with Pitt. What I remember is that several Pitt players were injured and nobody on BYU was and I remember BYU being the more physical team that day. I once read in an article a few years later that big time programs were embarrassed losing to BYU and that the Pitt coach vomited after the game because he was so upset. In 1979 BYU went to Houston and played Texas A&M in Rice stadium because Kyle Field was getting remodeled and BYU scored its first ever win over a nationally recognized program. A&M was ranked in the pre-season. They ended up 6-5 that year and far short of expectations. I remember the Texas papers making all kinds of Aggie jokes the next day about how the Aggies lost to those Mormon choir boys.

I don’t know if that attitude still carries over 30 years later. You would think that with BYU’s success over the last 40 years that losing to BYU would no longer be an embarrassment. .

I have some thoughts on the discussion. I agree with Craig regarding the fallout after a loss to BYU. It can devastate a team. Sports is a lot about physically dominating your opponent and skillfully beating them head to head… but there is also a huge mental aspect to it, particularly as you go up the level of competition. Part of the reason the Patriots keep winning is the mental edge they always have over their opponents.

It can be mentally devastating to lose to BYU but it can also be physically devastating (has Sam Bradford ever recovered on either front?) It may sound presumptive to say it but I think there is something to it.