SMC just had their worse game of the year, at the worse time. BYU gets them next at their house. Don’t be fooled, this game is a loss for BYU by every betting entity out there by the thinnest margins.
SMC rarely loses at home. Bennett never wastes possessions….ever.
SMC now has two very bad losses on the year (Win and Pacific). BYU has one so so bad loss @BSU. Once SMC has to go to its bench, the talent really drops off. BYU’s only weakness is inside length and rebounding. BYU is #7 nationally at 3 point% at 40.9%, SMC is very close to our metrics, they have 6 guys that shoot better then 40%.
Two guys we have to account for are Ford and Fitts. Ford the street smart undersized machine that makes SMC go and most likely WCC MVP and Fitts, Power and shooting, few guys and guard him. Everyone else are roll players.
BYU will most likely dog Ford with Barcello and Dog Fitts with Nixon,Seljaas and at times Childs. We match up against SMC very well.
Of D, who guards TJ? Who guards Toolson? Childs will most likely be doubled all night.
The Nitty Gritty- If BYU is hitting outside shots, it will be favored to win, otherwise SMC would be favored because they are a different animal at home. More so then any team I know of in College Bball.
I can’t stress enough just how bad the SMC loss at Pacific threw a wrench in the Dance Picture.
A lot can happen and there are a lot of wrenches being thrown around the NCAA right now, but the loss was not a good one, just like the SF loss to Portland-Portland had a 5 game losing streak, so in essence we are probably at this point back to a 2 team entry into the dance. Easy solution-finish 2nd ahead of SMC which was just made a bit more attainable. Right now my predictions are Gonzaga 1-2 league losses-SMC 3 plus losses and BYU 4 plus losses. I’m not so much interested in who wins Thursday-more in how BYU plays. BYU plays well and loses a tight one, then I’m feeling good about beating them in Provo. Get blown out and I’m not feeling well at all. Key games for BYU on the road-well a bunch of them including -Portland, SF, Pacific, SC, Pepperdine, LMU-there are no rollovers in the league as SMC and Gonzaga will also find out
I still see that BSU loss as just a glaring, terrible mark on our “dance” record…but the Pacific loss is even worse for SMU.
■■■■ Harmon’s article about the changes under Pope was an outstanding read…some of us have been yelling “HIRE POPE” from the rooftops for a few years now, and the initial results are fantastic. I think that we would be ranked right now if not for the awesome NCAA screw job on Childs (LOVED Bill Walton and Jay Bilas HARSH criticism of the NCAA on that matter, by the way).
Crucial to beat SMU in their house. That would make us a solid contender in March, even if we later have two losses to GU, even a home loss to SMU, and a loss in the WCC tourney. The margin of error is just sooooo thin because of the Rec League and its garbage teams outside of the top 3. If we are an 8 or 9 loss team, with only one terrible loss, we could just squeak by and get in. If we lose Thursday, our margin of error for the rest of the season basically becomes zero.
I really, really can’t stand Bennett…it would be fun to beat him in his place. Funny, when we lose to GU I don’t get so disappointed because I think Mark Few is one of the greatest coaches and greatest people in college basketball. Bennett? Not even close.
You called it. Pope deserves all the credit he gets. I dare say he is “better” then I ever dreamed. He will have his work cut out next year when all these Sr’s graduating. I have to think that he can get some really good transfer talent if there are slots open.
My take on Dancing is slightly different. I think we will be judged on Before Childs and After Childs records. The Houston win is our best followed by USU, VT, UCLA, Nev blowout, in that order. #7 SOS non conference.
We can lose at SMC and it won’t change that much, a win would propel us into the 5/6 seed range. We can also weather a loss to anyone of the SF, P, SC group. Right now BYU is favored to win every contest except road games with Gonzaga and SMC.
More on match up problems SMC has with BYU. Fitts is the one guy that BYU really has to worry about because he is a larger version of LMU’s Scott and I don’t think we will wear Fitts out like we did Scott.
But SMC starts two guys just over 6’1 (Ford and Kahse). One will have to guard Barcello 6’2, the other TJ Haws, 6’4. Barcello is a brick body while TJ is much taller. That leaves 6’6 Krebs to guard Toolson, Fitts to guard Childs and Fotu or Bowman to guard Nixon or Lee.
If Fitts guards Childs, he can foul out fast. If anyone else does, Childs scores. If they double, BYU will get open looks from 3
If Bowman or Fotu guard Lee, he will back them down.
Should be a great game.