Some interesting stats

So one of the commentariat on cougarboard corrected me on something and I asked him for the stats he was referencing and he was kind enough to dig up a post from a coach with access to possession by possession stats but this was in the middle of the season. Now keep in mind these are PPP or points per possession. It’s actually a pretty simple stat it’s just points / possessions where a possession or play is counted as any play where you either score, Turn it over or get fouled. (I think assists are in here too) So if Eli scored 25 and takes 15 shots, 4 turnovers, and is fouled 4 times then he had 25 points / 23 possessions and the PPP = 1.087 for the game. Defensive PPP is very similar it’s points scored on you as the primary defender (I think) divided by the number of shots taken on you, times you fouled.

The problem with this particular stat is it doesn’t take into account that there are other players on the floor and it’s impossible to isolate your specific contributions entirely. Or in other words, chemistry matters. The other guy doing his job matters. That said, it can be revealing.

I’ll trim it down a bit:

Team offense .993 PPP 92nd percentile 30th overall in the country. (this does not account for opposition)
Elijah Bryant- 21.1% of the possessions, 1.119 PPP, 95th percentile. Best play: Spot Up, 98th percentile
Dalton Nixon- 4.4% of the possessions, 1.043 PPP, 86th percentile. Best play: Cut, 87th percentile
Very Good
Zac Seljaas- 7.5% of the possessions, 1.012 PPP, 81st percentile. Best play: P&R Roll Man, 92rd percentile
Payton Dastrup- 3.9% of the possessions, .988 PPP, 76th percentile. Best play: Spot Up, 80th percentile
Yoeli Childs- 23.8% of the possessions, .979 PPP, 74th percentile. Best play: Cut, 80th percentile
McKay Cannon- 4.5% of the possessions, .969 PPP, 72nd percentile. Best play: Spot Up, 93rd percentile
Luke Worthington- 6.5% of the possessions, .964 PPP, 71st percentile. Best play: Post Up, 81st percentile
TJ Haws- 17.6% of the possessions, .929 PPP, 62nd percentile. Best play: P&R Ball Handler, 77th percentile
Jashire Hardnett- 9.4% of the possessions, .861 PPP, 44th Percentile. Best play: P&R Ball Handler, 75th percentile

Team defensive .876 PPP, 69th percentile 110th overall in the country. Here is how the individual players breakdown:

TJ Haws- 11.1% of the possessions, .628 PPP, 94th percentile (!!!)
Very Good
Dalton Nixon- 3.8% of the possessions, .762 PPP, 79th percentile
Elijah Bryant- 11.2% of the possessions, .77 PPP, 77th percentile
Yoeli Childs- 13.2% of the possessions, .833 PPP, 59th percentile
Jahshire Hardnett- 9.5% of the possessions, .846 PPP, 55th percentile
Below Average
McKay Cannon- 6.1% of the possessions, .94 PPP, 29th percentile
Zac Seljaas- 6.3% of the possessions, .978 PPP, 20th percentile
Payton Dastup- 2.9% of the possessions, 1.063 PPP, 9th percentile
Luke Worthington- 3.4% of the possessions, 1.173, 4th percentile

Player trends (positive and negative) to that point in the season.
Gains: TJ, Nixon, Luke, Hardnett, Yoeli
Dips: Eli, Cannon, Dastrup, Seljaas

Gains: TJ, Nixon, Hardnett, Luke, Zac
Dips: Eli, Cannon, Yoeli

Some key take aways:

There are a lot of things here that make me change positions.

  • TJ is a lot better on-ball defender than I thought, part of that is how often he generates steals and how little he fouls (and rarely a shooting foul)
  • TJ is a lot better in the pick and roll than I thought and we have a lot of guys who aren’t TJ who are great spot-up shooters.
  • Maybe TJ should be our starting PG??? Again, Take this all with a grain of salt as it is just one stat and there are others like offensive and defensive rating among many others like more lineup oriented stats like +/- and so on. I am suddenly much more open to letting TJ have the keys provided the ginger smeagul doesn’t shoot long threes off the dribble. And he’s getting better on both ends as the season goes along…
  • Going along with the TJ is PG idea, we need Eli to get a lot more spot up attempts. 98th percentile is great. Same with Cannon. And Yo needs the ball delivered to him at the rim more often… let the guard do the work.
  • PD does not look as good with these stats, especially defensively. This is explained by his turnovers and fouls. Which again, can relate back to chemistry and if you don’t practice with the starters…
  • Keep in mind that PD, if I remember correctly, Leads the team or is basically tied with Yo for defensive rating which does a better job accouting for his stops like rebounds and blocks.
  • And as bad as PD looks, Luke looks worse.
  • Also, Zac as the roll man?

One other thing I would like to highlight is the context of Eli’s spot up shooting. He’s doing this on a team that doesn’t feature a lot of three-point threats and where spacing and getting open looks for him is hard. If we improve the spacing and the ball moves a little bit faster, his % probably won’t improve, but the number of opportunities for him to be a spot-up shooter, and conserve energy while executing an excellent shot attempt, go way up.

I keep seeing new and interesting subtleties. I can’t wait to see the year-end stats.

I’m just going to keep adding to this as friends send me things.

This is cool to see, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga are numbers 2 and 3 in team offensive efficiency…good grief.