Mid season state of BYU basketball

1 As we look back at the season, I would say that there are two games byu would want back…@Utah and TTU at the Marriott.

2 First time HC Kevin Young was trying to play too many skilled players while continuing to say, “We need to find the right lineups” Took longer to find the best line ups for 2 main reasons:

Hall and Egor were both injured early on…the fact that Hall was injured early and did not spend the time running with Demin really hurt team chemistry. Demin in turn, injured his knee just about the time Hall came back…a perfect storm.

KY also felt the heat of starting 2 freshmen, Demin and Catchings, when the answer all along was play your experience…From the get go, I felt that Mag, a 5 yr grad Sr., who is ELITE defense was the obvious choice especially in the rough and tough big 12 play. Once Ky settled on Mag, two things happened…Mag showed that his suspect 3 was just fine and that his game altering defense was a game changer.
Both big runs BYU has enjoyed since the Utah failure involves Mag and Saunders on the floor together along with Demin.

6’9 Demin and 6’7 Mag make it very tough for guards to get open 3s off and their reach makes passing lanes shrink.

3 Guys that can penetrate and score or dish are critical for our success. Both Demin and Hall have been mediocre in our losses at controlling the game. In our wins, the margin was too wide to worry about a “Closer”. BYU still does not have a go to guy and that could bite us again in a tight game.
My choices were Hall (who is still not himself after the injury), Demin, if he is looking to find the open guy, but if his shots fall, he becomes “the Guy”. and Baker, the guy just finds a way to get that 10’ floater.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

If you look at T-Rank, BYU is about where I thought we would be, top 5 or 6. but if you look at the far right stat, BYU has few quality wins. That will all change with our next 3 games.

I think with Mag alone, BYU jumps significantly in defense. Stats for the season say BYU is top 50 on D. With Mag as a starter, BYU jumps 20 spots, top 30.

Better D takes pressure on scoring. before I can say we turned a corner on scoring, I have to watch games where BYU’s 3 is not falling. If we can grind out a road win when the shots don’t fall, then I would say BYU is a top 25 team.

2024-25 Men’s College Basketball Power Index - ESPN

Right now, I have BYU in the dance…Bracketology is slow to move, mostly because BYU has no ranked wins, that is about to change

If the team continues the improved defence, and gets more consistent good offensive results I would agree…which is to say not yet.

with all quad 1 losses, meaning 3 so far, KY will have to get his boys to win some unexpected games as well as all the expected wins to fall on the positive side of the bubble.
WAB–wins above bubble–is a new stat that the dance committee is looking at and BYU is 61st…a long way from the top 37 needed to clearly live on the bubble.
The predictive metrics the committee looks at are all bubblish, the results metrics are all way below acceptable: which means work to do and then some.
KY needs to get enough wins to get a decent conference tournament seed and then win at least one, (I would guess two in the conference tournament), to have a strong enough showing in the results metrics for the predictive metrics to make a difference.

translation - the likelyhood of BYU making the NCAA tourney is not very high at this point.

That was a monster win last night. I should get pollsters talking about byu.

Baylor was ranked top 30 ken Pom. BYU jumped to 24. Well within the curve

I expected a jump but haven’t seen one. Wish I could find BYU at a 24.

this is what I see:
Result-Based Metrics

KPI: 60
SOR: 50
WAB: 54

Predictive Metrics
BPI: 29
POM: 31
T-Rank: 25

Bart Torvik rating may have hit 24 before receding to 25?
Torvik’s T-Rank though very close to KenPom’s is more biased on recent results. Meaning a team that is on the rise like our beloved Cougars is rated higher than Kenpom’s, but a team that is not playing as well as their past record tends to rate lower than Kenpom.

The predictive metrics the committee uses will get BYU some looks, well within the margins for a dance invite.
Sadly, the results based metrics though improving, 4 wins in 5 games will do that, are still well below bubble territory.

Looking ahead:
Road games KY needs to get his boys clicking, starting Saturday.
currenting 1 win v 4 losses.
I assume AZ and ISU will add up to 6 losses meaning to be basically even KY needs to win every game on the road that is not in Tucson or Ames…have they improved enough to make it happen? A game at a time, adds up to maybe.
Every away game from here on out is a quad 1 game…ceteris paribus that would also get KY up to a reasonable quad 1 record: 5 wins to the current 3 losses plus the two more losses=5 wins and 5 quad 1 losses.
Home games include two tossups, AZ and Kansas, with expected wins against KSU, WVU, and UofU…AZ, Kansas, and WVU though are the only possible quality wins.

KY and his boys have got to prove true road warriors and pull out a remarkable home game streak to have cemented a dance invite in regular season.
To get a solid conference tournament seed the possible results may be a bit more forgiving, though it looks like mostly only on the road.

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They’re going to take 8 to 10 teams from the Big12. So, it’s important to get ahead of the pack after the first 4 teams. If we play like we did Saturday, that will happen.

I don’t want to be too realistic but BYU played a very good game and got production from a lot of different places and still only won in OT on their home floor. Yes, it was a great win but that game could have gone either way. The result was always in doubt, right up till the very end.

I saw good things but I didn’t see anything that convinced me they have turned the corner and will do what it takes to get that dance invite and be a force in the Big 12 this season. There is still a lot of work to do.

For sure there’s a lot of work to do. But, we saw Young rely on experience to win the game. However, I think he will insert Catchings late in games again because he looks to be turning the corner. Young is improving as is his staff. The players are playing better together and have won 3 in a row. Something we didn’t do last year in Big12 play. UCF is tough at their place. We have to bring the A+ game. And, as in football, from here on out, I doubt we will see any more blowouts.

Lots of work to do. Eleven more conference games and then conference tournament. Hopefully KY and his staff, and his players, can continue to improve…first season in a brand new league with a brand new set of rules he is doing very well…but not yet competitive with the best coaches in the NCAA/B12…

Conference Tournament top four get byes to quarter finals.
2025 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Championship - Big 12 Conference
Next four have only one game to play to reach quarter finals.
It is nearly impossible, meaning win 5 straight games in as many days, to go from the bottom 8 to tournament championship.
Seeds 5-8 only have to win 4 games in as many days.
Top 4 seeds only have to get 3 wins in 3 days.
Barring injuries KY has the deepest team in the conference. So built for tournament play in many respects. The question is how many games will they be playing.

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Evan Miya just posted what I think is the best of the statistical analysis of where teams are in relation to their current season:
EvanMiya CBB Analytics - College Basketball Team, Player, and Lineup Metrics

KY and his boys have got a lot of work to do:
No truly great wins.
Several losses worse than their best wins.
I still think Providence is a true outlier. Their star came back for BYU and so they played unusually well, since then he has been hurt again so back to playing worse than BYU…
KY needs to set up better scheduling for next year.
For some reason Youtube has fed me a bunch of Dybansta feeds this week.
Best BYU player since Kosic against the high school players he is dominating.
Sion looks solid, not spectacular.

He has an advantage because he is mature and understands the game already, at such a young age. He is probably the best player, at his age, that the game has seen in awhile. I’ve seen Cooper Flagg play and everyone raves about him, but Dybantsa is better. Once he gets NBA experience, his ceiling is very high. I think he will be a NBA all star and has the potential to be on the level of Jordan or Lebron honestly… it all depends on where he ends up and the players around him.

There are still 17 games remaining between top Big 12’s top tier of seven, and Arizona will be involved in more than half of them starting with Tuesday’s trip to BYU.
When Arizona’s Big 12 schedule came out it looked like it was backloaded and that continues to be the case at the midpoint. The Wildcats still have to play every other team in the top tier, including two against BYU, and four of those are on the road.
Breaking down the Big 12 men’s basketball race at midpoint of conference play

Two games against Arizona, starting Tuesday in Provo, as well as a visit from Kansas (which will be on the tail end of a 2-game swing in the state), will provide the Cougars with chances to battle for fourh place or better. But there are plenty of pitfalls, too, including the most difficult road trip in terms of travel to Cincinnati and West Virginia.

BYU finishes at home against Utah, a rivalry game that could also determine if it has to start a day or two earlier at the Big 12 Tournament.
(somehow they missed the visit from Iowa State)
Meaning BYU faces 4 games (3 teams) that are tied or ahead of them in the fight for conference tournament seed.

So AZ has the hardest schedule against top tier teams to compete for the conference regular season title.
Among the teams still in contention for conference title, BYU is tied for the easiest schedule remaining against the top tier teams.
Plenty of work, and opportunity, for KY and his boys to upgrade on last year’s 5th place ending.