1 interesting note, @ UCF, they are favored to win 54% over BYU. I like being the underdog. Hate being favored to win, just me…
2 UCF hangs their hat on their 250lb QB, Jefferson, he is a LOAD to take down.
3 RB Harvey is their speedster, if he breaks past the LBers. look out, he is gone.
4 Jefferson is not a big play QB, he does have a favorite wideout, Hudson.
5 all three of these dudes are Seniors, most of the offense goes through these 3
6 UCF has lost their last 4 games, they are out of the Big 12 race…will they lay over or will they fight? Srs will not let their team hang their heads, UCF wants to spoil BYU’s season.
7 If Retzaiff protects the ball, BYU wins, it is that simple.
Their defense has some big dudes that stopped ISU’s run and put pressure on their QB. We have to really be focused and ready for their defense.
Our defense must play better than yesterday.
Jefferson lost his starting job to a guy named Jacurri Brown. Looking at the stats it looks like he is a poor passer but a great runner. I watched some of their game against ISU and ISU was lucky to win at home. Brown became the starter the last two games he is averaging nearly 9 yards per carry.
This game is the most important game of the season.
In the preseason, FPI projected BYU would win 4.8 games. BYU surpassed that projection in five games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.1-1.9. Below are the game-by-game predictions.
What I noticed with the other top 4 or 5 teams mentioned, it seems that our probability of winning those games will be harder than what the other teams have to do.
Hope that made sense, but our road seems to be the heavier one to travel.
Teams often get better or at least should get better as the season moves along. They add new wrinkles into their offenses and defenses. They switch QB’s to change schemes. Injuries also play an important part in how teams are later in the season. With UCF, they have played teams very tough that are very good teams. Just losing. That’s why we are only given a 2 point victory going into the game. And, the fact UCF is the home team and it’s home coming for them too.
I always had KSU as the leader of the Big 12. We caught em off guard. Their QB gets better with each game. Colorado is a dark horse. Cinn. has gotten in the convo by playing tough teams at home. They are the least likely to be in the convo.
1 ISU has the 2 year record, has the easiest schedule, they did not play the heavy weights and won’t til they run into KSU at the end.
2 KSU has to talent to win it all but they ran into BYU and we exposed their QB youth. it won’t be the same if we play again.
3 BYU really has to get by UCF, then we should be in the driver’s seat
4 Colorado should of lost to Baylor, lost to KSU, They could win out.
I’ve been say, UCF in Florida is our biggest game of the season after the KSU win in Provo.
Back to UCF
The OSU game marked the second time in four games they’ve allowed an opponent to generate at least 200 yards on the ground.
“This defense doesn’t usually give up very many big plays, but we gave up two big runs that cost us about 50 yards each,” BYU coach Kalani Sitake said. “The big plays were missed assignments that we can fix. That happens sometimes. But I think that minimizing the big plays is what we are good at. We are going to go back to that.”
UCF will not make it easy to stop the run. The Knights (3-4, 1-3) lead the Big 12 with an average of 280.3 rushing yards per game. They average nearly 6 yards per carry and have 19 touchdowns on the ground.
RJ Harvey leads the league with 890 yards and 11 touchdowns on 6.7 yards per carry. He’s fifth in the nation in yards gained.
Still, BYU has other ways to make it hard for the Knights to move the ball. The Cougars’ defense has generated 16 turnovers through seven games – tied for fourth among FBS teams. Ten players have made an interception for the Cougars this season, with Tanner Wall and Jakob Robinson leading the way with two apiece.
Has UCF faced a good run Defense this year? I know we had some problems with our run D last week, but over all we have forced heavy run teams to pass and I think this has helped us a lot.
That was glaring! Many of our stars acted like self promoting heroes out there. The 1st time BYU’s defense broke all year. We hung our hat on team play before the OSU game. Pretty sure Hill made them watch enough film to “correct” that boloney.
I expect the D to get back to basics. OSU game was the best thing to happen to BYU all year. Gundy EXPOSED us. ME: our DBs can handle anything in the air. They are the strongest core of BYU. Our D line has be adequate. So…our ends and linebackers HAVE to play sound.
case in point: the Arizona game. BYU was doubling and tripling McMillion, allowed WO-Lemonious-Craigg a wide open crossing for a TD. Hill realized his error and single covered after that, result: only 1 TD rushing thereafter. Here is what I said a week before that game:
"Az has the highest net Rushing in the Big 12…@5.9 ypc but under 100 y per game. Means that Arizona is a pass first team with really good RBs. Translation: If they can pass on BYU, spread us out, their running game will eat clock and score.
Personally, I think our D can harass Fifita, he is NOT a duel QB, so pin the ears back and go after him. Our DBs should handle Az’s receivers even if McMillian gets 140 or so yards. Beating Utah 22-10 is not enough points to beat BYU (We are averaging 36 points vs. solid defenses in the big 12.)
UCF is not a strong throwing team. Focus everything on stopping the QB option run and make UCF have to throw. They have been intercepted more times then games so far this year.
UCF Vs. Cinn
BYU must cover the run. Brown did run vs. Cinn, with UCF running for 196 on 40 carries. Brown also had 200 y passing on 13-20. Brown averaged 10 yds per pass on Cinn. BYU pass coverage is Waaaaaaay better.
UCF was 5-13 on 3rd downs
UCF lost the ball 3 times vs. Cinn. Two funbles and an interception.
ISU vs. UCF
UCF almost won on the ground game. They were only 8-20 and 62 y passing, avg. 3yd per catch
UCF rushed 354 on ISU. Big time RB, Harvey 196 on 25 carries, avg 7.8 pc.
Brown rushed 154 on 13 carries, nearly 12 ypc!
Brown was intercepted twice vs. ISU
I would not have 2 safeties back, use one on pass coverage, dedicate the other to 100% run.
Stop the run, win the game
We know what to fix. can BYU do it? I say yes.
Will be out of town for game. so heres my predictions.
BYU can win two ways
Offense strikes quickly and often. Big chunk plays passing and 7+ avg rushing. Just swamp UCF’s boat with points. UCF can’t keep up. Defense on the field a lot, but limits UCF to 220 yds rushing or less.
Offense slow grinds for long drives and scores 6 out of 8 drives. 37 minutes to 23 minutes of possession. Defense getting more rest and keeps UCF under 180 yds rushing.
Number one key to success is Retzlaff playing B+ to A in BOTH halves. Not one half, not 73 seconds, but entire game for the first time this season against a P4 opponent.
Prediction, either 1) or 2) is fine for me. I’ll go BYU 43 UCF 24. And then…
“I’m going to DisneyWorld!!!” Ok, maybe they can’t go this time as next day is Sunday and need to be in Provo Monday. Wait a minute! They have a bye. So go to Disneyworld on Monday! 8 and 0!! they earned one day. I’m guessing that will never happen actually
During the OSU game, watching our previously EXCELLENT defense be DESTROYED and EMBARRASSED while never blitzing and basically looking like a bad middle school team, and making NO substantive adjustments for the entire game, then ADMITTING to the media that they were better prepared, we had a short week, blah blah blah, I was certain that the absolute thrashing taken by our D was due to one of three possible things:
Jay Hill had been kidnapped and replaced by the ghost of Tuiaki.
Jay Hill is an idiot.
Jay Hill is an evil genius. He thought we could beat OSU without playing any D (which we did), he would thus lull UCF into complacency, and then he would bring the absolute thunder with an 8 man box and constant run blitzes on Saturday, taking UCF by surprise and beating them into the dirt.
I could not believe my eyes watching BYU bring no pressure and make NO adjustments for the entire game–the final 9 minute gut-punch drive by OSU made me literally wonder if I was in a time warp and Tuiaki and Ed Lamb were back in charge–especially after we best K State, Zona, etc bringing GIANT pressure (and we lovingly recall that all 3 Zona TOs were the DIRECT result of blitz pressure). I have no other explanation other than Hill thought he could hide the ball with the scheme he has planned for UCF.
And as you point out, indeed he cut that too close for comfort.
Our DL is OK. Not great, but decent. Batty has not played as well as last year, but the rest of the DL have been OK. They will have to be better than “just okay” vs UCF, because our LB are not dominant run stuffers. JK is GREAT as a spy and delayed blitzer, but not particularly great in Run D. JK has 6 TFL but most on delayed blitzes where he chased down the QB trying to run.
Taggart is an extremely good tackler in run D but is undersized and rarely makes plays at or behind the LOS (Taggart leads the team in tackles but has only 1.5 TFL in 7 games). Glasker leads the team with 8 TFL (2 on sacks). Glasker and JK have the size and athleticism to really wreck people in the backfield. I say alternate bringing Glasker or JK on run blitzes on nearly EVERY play, and use the other one to key on the QB on every play. They are both faster than people know and can keep that dude near the LOS. If we use a SS or nickel as the “QB run stopper” I fear they get just run over the way OG2 ran over Wakely (who is a tough dude) a few times. JK and Glasker are big and strong and fast enough to hit a 6’4"/240 pound running QB and take him down. As Chris pointed out, use the SS as an extra run stopper at 5 yards to pursue when our front 7 misses tackles, and trust the corners and FS to play man and take their chances with a QB who has been very inaccurate.
Got great faith in Hill and his ability to manage the D.
BYU was behind in the OSU game at halftime for the 2nd time (SMU and OSU) other than that, BYU has been in the driver’s seat all season long.