Non-conference was largely a disappointment. at 7-4 it was the worst record any Rose team had at 11 games in. Two losses that shouldn’t have been losses but for well FT shooting and turnovers. FT appears to have been solved in Hawaii; is it? Turnovers have been on a nearly reasonable rate as well; so the fractured 20/20 of hindsight says that if the team had been playing as well as they are right now with Austin and Emery starting over Toolson, wish him the best, and Kaufusi the record at that point would have been 9-2 and the team would be ranked after a 2-1 Hawaii trip.
The team lost the three most important games of non-conference: the opening game of the Diamond Head Classic against Harvard, and on the two floors of the PAC12 Utes and Buffaloes. The second half of both the visiting games showed the team has the talent to play and likely beat consistently the middle PAC12 dwellers. Austin starting has gotten the team by the beginning of the game jitters that plagued the team in both games so the massive first half deficits will likely not be faced again.
Conference
The conference appears to break down into three divisions this year. Those contending for the crown. The scanter than normal middle and the teams dragging the bottom. The contenders include the Zags, Gaels, and Cougs. Several of the computer systems simply have each of the three beating the other two at home and losing to the other two on the road, making this weeks visit to Saint Mary’s particularly important, especially as they appear to be in a bit of a funk. Assuming the three basically play to chalk, I’m avoiding the should;), the race is likely to come down to which team hickups more against the rest of the league.
Every year since coming to the WCC Rose’s teams have had unwarranted hickups and until last year have failed to win in the Kennel. If the team can do both, the regular season title is within reach. With KC’s improved play this year, a steadier Fischer, Emery playing like a junior instead of a freshman, Seljaas hitting his remarkable rate, KD getting his steady double double, and the rest of the boys in the middle not stinking it up too badly avoiding the hickups seems possible. If the game in the Kennel were two months from now, I think its possible that Rose could tinker enough, the team could improve enough to beat the Zags on the road again, but…well that’s not the case. I predict another second place finish…next year in Jerusalem…
Pepperdine is the sole team in the middle of the pack this year. They are likely to beat most of the bottom dwellers and lose to the title contenders.
The rest of the league is close to a race to the bottom. They will rack up losses to the top 4 teams; 0-8 is tough on the psyche and on team cohesion and well it is just generally tough in all manner of respects. So which of them if any will beat the others on their away games is anybody’s guess. College bball is largely a case of hold home serve and steal some on the road; none of these teams is likely to accomplish either.