In Saturday’s 91-89 thriller against Wisconsin, the Cougars shot 49.2% from the field, 46.2% from long distance, 93.8% from the free-throw line and dished out 21 assists**, becoming the first team to ever achieve such numbers in March Madness.**
1 Both team will have their hands full as Bama is #4 in Offense, BYU is #8. Expect this game to be in the mid 80s. side note:
BYU’s past 10 games have been O net 134.7= #2 nationally
Bama’s past 10 games have been 127.9= #6 nationally
adv. BYU by a smidge
2 both teams are 50ish on Defense, Bama has been slightly better
BYU’s past 10 games D net 99.2 = #52
Bama’s past 10 game D net 96.7= #34
This is a tricky one because BYU did not start Mag until midway, so me money is on BYU but
Bama is very good.
3 When teams are mirror equals, then you have to go to the other matrix. Reb, TOs and especially FTs
Assists counsel out, both teams are at 17 APG.
Rebs- Bama 43-37 BYU RPG, Bama slightly better
Turn Overs- Bama 12.8-12.2 BYU. interesting! BYU by a hair.
Free Throws- Bama 71-70% BYU but the real issue is who gets to the FT line most often because that is the single biggest stat in close games, Who can draw fouls…
BYU 30%, ranked 227
Bama 40%, ranked 26
Bama is the clear leader and it is not even close. Guard Sears is Bama’s version of Tonje from Wisc. and he shoots 84% at the line.
4 Key players
Bama:
#1 Sr. guard 6’1 Mark Sears is their team leader, volume shooter, he had a poor game vs. SMC.
two other guards, S. 6’1Holloway and Sr. 6’4 Youngblood are the other volume 3 point shoots are 40% from outside.
#11, Sr. Center 6’11, 250lb Omoruyl is their to rebounder, 6.7 rpg and inside guy. hes a handfull.
One thing I see is their starting guards are 6’1 ish. vs. BYU’s 6’8 and 6’7. It does not fit our O playsets, but I would try posting Demin and Mag on their guards, but we should be able to bother their outside shots…Big advantage BYU, enough to offset their FT advantages???
5 I see this game won or lost on three things:
-who gets to the FT line and makes free throws, especially front ends!
-Who gets into foul trouble, ( Wisc lost because they have zero help from their bench), Bama plays 7 deep but will go 10 if needed. BYU has the better bench. possibly the best subs in D1 (just me)
-Who can make their 3s!!!
I would say, if this game were played in Denver, BYU wins. But it’s Jersey and who gets fans to the game, how is the lighting in Jersey. Buckle Up.
Too close to call but if Demin has another great game, BYU wins.
First one to 90 points.