The odds of Dancing

Basketball
1

And now we come to that special time of year where we make the guess of “will the Cougars go dancing”.

Before the Waves disaster @ home BYU was ranked anywhere from a 8 seed all the way back to a 12 seed but after the loss, BYU fell all the way out of most Bracketologist’s seedings. PS, the SMC game did little to remove us from the Brackets.

I would give us a 30% chance of dancing at this point as I look at our injuries and the road games we face with SMC firmly where we sat just a few weeks ago. We have a lot of ball yet to be played and I seem to remember that after BYU lost 3 straight WCC games the entire world had a fork in us and we ended up a 10 seed so we will see.

What say you?

2

I say that unless we win the conference tourney we will not go dancing. However, I think we have a good chance of winning the tourney if everyone gets healthy and if Aytes is able to play and get the timing down. So my final answer is 75% chance of going dancing because I give us a 75% chance of winning the conference tourney.

3

Stan… stan stan stan stan stan…

75% chance of winning the conference tourney?

You do realize that BYU would have to beat at least 2 of the teams they have lost to thus far, twice at home and once on the road, correct?

In case I need to remind everyone, Gonzaga is the gatekeeper for the wcc tournament champion. They are the chosen one and it will take a monumental effort and some officiating objectivity to change that.

1 Like
4

Oh heck, Jim, allow me to be overconfident at least once. My 75% figure is based on the following:

  1. Gonzaga won’t go all out if it makes it to the finals

  2. Austin, Winder, and Aytes playing will make a difference

  3. The flu bug and injury bug doesn’t hit.

So maybe not 75%…but 70+% sounds reasonable.

5

love your optimism, Stan. But Aytes is redshirting til next year (unless you know something we all don’t)

I don’t see BYU as having a chance of beating GU but we could get the second spot. That door is open for the taking.

6

  1. Gonzaga WILL go all out because it could make the difference in their seeding.

  2. Aytes is not playing this year as far as I know.

  3. The flu ran its’ course once and nobody knows if the injury bug will bite.

I’ll tell you what, just because I am feeling generous I will give you a 74% chance but no way 75%.

:slight_smile:

7
  1. NCAA no - NIT yes. NCAA is one and done for sure.
  2. Winning wcc tourney with those refs is a big laugh. Nope, GU going to win it all again like it meant to be for a loooonnnng time. BYU should be able to make a run once after this season through 2019 or longer.
  3. Dave Rose said 8’s will be in the practice squad but didn’t say he was playing. I say he is redshirting for sure.
8

Aytes is not playing. Burn a full year of eligibility for a future star, and risk future injury disaster, for what? For 10 games in a mediocre season? That ship sailed 2 days after his surgery.

9

17.4%. Optimistically.

10

BYU has a 78% chance of dancing on Feb 3. They are most likely a 10 seed.