The odds of Dancing

And now we come to that special time of year where we make the guess of “will the Cougars go dancing”.

Before the Waves disaster @ home BYU was ranked anywhere from a 8 seed all the way back to a 12 seed but after the loss, BYU fell all the way out of most Bracketologist’s seedings. PS, the SMC game did little to remove us from the Brackets.

I would give us a 30% chance of dancing at this point as I look at our injuries and the road games we face with SMC firmly where we sat just a few weeks ago. We have a lot of ball yet to be played and I seem to remember that after BYU lost 3 straight WCC games the entire world had a fork in us and we ended up a 10 seed so we will see.

What say you?

I say that unless we win the conference tourney we will not go dancing. However, I think we have a good chance of winning the tourney if everyone gets healthy and if Aytes is able to play and get the timing down. So my final answer is 75% chance of going dancing because I give us a 75% chance of winning the conference tourney.

Stan… stan stan stan stan stan…

75% chance of winning the conference tourney?

You do realize that BYU would have to beat at least 2 of the teams they have lost to thus far, twice at home and once on the road, correct?

In case I need to remind everyone, Gonzaga is the gatekeeper for the wcc tournament champion. They are the chosen one and it will take a monumental effort and some officiating objectivity to change that.

1 Like

Oh heck, Jim, allow me to be overconfident at least once. My 75% figure is based on the following:

  1. Gonzaga won’t go all out if it makes it to the finals

  2. Austin, Winder, and Aytes playing will make a difference

  3. The flu bug and injury bug doesn’t hit.

So maybe not 75%…but 70+% sounds reasonable.

love your optimism, Stan. But Aytes is redshirting til next year (unless you know something we all don’t)

I don’t see BYU as having a chance of beating GU but we could get the second spot. That door is open for the taking.

  1. Gonzaga WILL go all out because it could make the difference in their seeding.

  2. Aytes is not playing this year as far as I know.

  3. The flu ran its’ course once and nobody knows if the injury bug will bite.

I’ll tell you what, just because I am feeling generous I will give you a 74% chance but no way 75%.


  1. NCAA no - NIT yes. NCAA is one and done for sure.
  2. Winning wcc tourney with those refs is a big laugh. Nope, GU going to win it all again like it meant to be for a loooonnnng time. BYU should be able to make a run once after this season through 2019 or longer.
  3. Dave Rose said 8’s will be in the practice squad but didn’t say he was playing. I say he is redshirting for sure.

Aytes is not playing. Burn a full year of eligibility for a future star, and risk future injury disaster, for what? For 10 games in a mediocre season? That ship sailed 2 days after his surgery.

17.4%. Optimistically.

BYU has a 78% chance of dancing on Feb 3. They are most likely a 10 seed.