So right now we’re #3 in Net rankings and #4 in KenPom. We’ve been in the top 6 of both most of the year. I was having a hard time thinking of this basketball team as worthy of such high national rankings, particularly after last year! So I took a look at the underlying stats (remember there are 351 D1 basketball schools to be ranked against). This is what I found:
Sofsched: 39, 40 or as low as 92 depending on which ranking you look at, so not great, but not too bad. Better than I would have thought. Good enough to make the stats generally indicative of the team’s strengths and weaknesses though when we play a Big 12 schedule things WILL change. But here is where the team stands against the other 350 teams right now in every team stat category on the NCAA website:
Assists to turnover ratio: 1
Assists/G: 1
Bench pts/G: 3
Effective FG%: 9
Fast break pts: 7
FG %: 33
FG Defense: 57
Rebound Margin: 2
Def Rbds:10
Off Rbds: 24
Scoring Def: 12
Scoring Off: 6
Scoring Margin: 1
3ptAtt/G: 2
3ptMade/G: 1
3pt %: 44
Turnovers/G: 26
TOsforced/G: 132
TOMargin: 37
Fouls/G: 114
Steals/G: 169
Blocks/G: 250
FThrow%: 85
FTA/G: 330
FTM/G: 318
The free throw stats are kind of a direct result of the 3pt stats: fewer fouls on open 3pt shots and #1 in 3pt attempts means fewer fouls against us as opposed to a team whose offense in all in the paint. So, when you take that out the only number that is below average is blocks per game, but when you are playing team defense as well as these guys are, rebounding as well as we are, etc., blocks are pretty meaningless. Its mostly just a flashy individual talent kind of stat usually produced mainly by one or two guys - and we’ve played most of our games without Fouss, our best shot blocker. I’ve never seen any team in the top ten in 11 different stats, top 50 in 16, top 100 in 19, much less a BYU team!
This shows me what the computers are looking at, but not whether we can maintain it on the road or in the Big 12.
However, to offset at least in part the Big 12 effect, as Mark Pope has said “We haven’t had our whole roster available yet.” Most of what we’ve accomplished so far was without Fouss (for half the games so far), Davis, Baker, with a still limited Khalifa (and only for half the games and still out of shape from the injury recovery), And it turns out that SJ has been limited for 3 weeks or so also. When Jax heals up, Davis and Khalifa get in shape, Baker and Johnson are 100%, if they keep sharing the ball and playing D, AND IF, they can continue to hit threes on the road (BIG if), these guys could be very competive and fun to watch!
There’s no doubt that Byu is going to be very competitive just because of our talented outside shooting and experience. But the big 12 from top to bottom is full of better athletes than we have faced with exception of maybe San Diego state. Games in the big 12 V come down to a pointer or two, and that’s when free throw shooting wins or loses games. The fact that Byu shoots 50% of it shots from three land tells me that we are going to lose some road games. I am higher on this team that I was a month ago. Khalifa and baker are making me change my mind I think this is easily a top 15 team in the nation now or as before I thought they were top 30.
If you look at in particular baker and his ability to dribble and get past defenders to get open, looks or to kick out for an open three. He is a difference maker. I will say this that one Byu gets it going. Nobody in the big 12 has seen a team like Byu. We are going to catch a few teams by surprise.
The good news is BYU is back at #14 in the AP. Let’s not get tripped up by Whyoming