And so it begins

I made some comments that something would happen, starting in April 2015. I starting feeling this 20 months earlier. I have known this for a long time. That something was going to happen and it was going to get ugly. Do you know what economic indicators are? Do you know what happens when negative GDP occures for two quarters in a row? Historically it means one thing. GDP just was released and for the second quarter in a row it was negative. The figures were revised downward. Do you know what that is an indicator of? Recession is on the way. Governments have the ability to fine tweek the ecomony and they use specific tools to do so. One of those tools is to reduce interest rates. Well, that one isn’t in the bag. Some folks like Reagan reduced taxes. Debt reduction and spending reductions are also in the bag. This twinkie in the white house, who knows nothing about ecomomics or business is, through taxes, bringing in more revenue than ever, yet debt is steadily increasing. That one makes sense! But Obama talks about the millions of jobs he has created. The problem is part time jobs don’t solve anything. Those part time jobs are so intertwined with Obama Care that a whole generation of Americans between the ages of 19 and 28 are totally lost in life. They have no future, no hope and no dreams. They can’t get 30 hours of work a week. That means that they don’t participate in the economy, Many of them are on food stamps or other assistance. Let me give you an example. If your kid is working about 28 hours a week and making 10 dollars an hour, which could be pushing it. He is probably getting $1000.00 a month. What can you do on a thousand dollars a month? Live in mom and dads basement and play video games. Maybe you can buy a car, What about gas and insurance. Can you rent? To be frank about this, only people who really know what they are doing can prevent a recession with these economic indicators. If this goes really ugly, which could easily happen. It could realistically take somewhere between 6 to 8 years to recover. Why so long. Only one reason. Because debt is so stinking high and our politicians do not have the wherewithall to solve the problem. 95% of the people in Washington have no clue what is coming, let alone the American people. When I said, I hope you are ready, that is exactly what I meant. The real bad side of this is tens of millions could very easily loose all of their retirement that they have saved all their lives for. Hyper Inflation, probably the worst word in the english language, could become a reality. We have a very small window to avoid this. If this comes to fruition, I hope you are ready. I also hope this scared the crap out of you. It usually takes about six months before it kicks in. This last quarter that was just revised down was the expansion quarter. Lots of hiring and new jobs for the new year. Life springs eternal in the spring, or it is suppose to. I am very interested in your comments and what you think. If you think I am kidding about the results of having two negative GDP quarters in a row, you need to seek out someone who knows about economics.
Sincerely
Jeff

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Just as a thought, I know of one thing that could occure which could almost instantly prevent this recession from happening. I also believe Obama would rather croak than allow it to happen. What would you do to prevent this very possible recession from occuring.
Jeff

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Come on kc! He obviously watches Glen Beck, so he should know! Just cause the last guy in office, who understood the economy and al,l really did drive us into a depression doesn’t mean it can’t get worse. And just cause the guy that doesn’t understand the economy cleaned up that guys mess, don’t think the end isn’t near. I recommend buying gold and survival kits ASAP!

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KC, GDP quarterly reports come from the government. They are economic indicators. Two negative GDP reports in a row point to a recession. That is history. If you think it is funny, have a good laugh, but I hope you are ready. If this goes to recession in could get ugly with the debt and spending out of control the way it is. I hope you are very careful with your 401 or what ever you are invested in for retirement. Do you know what the government did in Crete, you know, that little island of of Greece. They literally took money out of peoples bank accounts to provide solvency for the government.
Jeff

First of all Mike, I have Direct TV and don’t get the Blaze TV. So I do not watch Glenn Beck. Second, I know a little about economics and business. They were my favorite classes in college. Third Bush added to the national debt which is reprehensable but Obama has added more than all other presidents put together.in our entire history. Tax revenue is as high as it has ever been, that is a fact. Yet spending continues to increase. I do watch business reports and the news was elaborated upon there. Thats is where I heard about the two negative GDP Quarters. I know what that means as an economic indicator and I am very converned. If it happens, it will be very difficult to a lot of people. Especially part time people. They are the first to get laid off. If it goes bad it could really go bad. Ugly bad.I am concerned about a lot of things Mike and yes I care about your well being. Even if you are a Democrat. I guarantee we don’t have a great leader in either party at this time. Mike, can you name a great leader, right now.
Jeff

The sky may indeed be falling. Unfortunately, people have been saying that the country is facing an immediate financial collapse since before Y2k. This makes it difficult to believe the current crisis warning. Will the economy survive the debt that has been multiplied under this and previous administrations? I don’t know. Is this finally the time that the warnings become reality? I don’t know and neither do those who think they know. I will say this, I believe that eventually, our economy will collapse from the weight of the national debt. I don’t believe that congress or the president have the courage to cut spending to the extent necessary to avoid it. Will it happen in the next few years? I don’t know and I don’t plan on relying on those that have been wrong every year since Y2K.

Wow KC… You sure showed Jeff… with this…

I would expect this from my five old grand daughter… not someone who is “suppose” be an adult…

Google what he is talking about and there is a lot of “real” economist who actually agree with him…

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp - definition of a recession…

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Mike…

Just curious why is it when the Liberals (which I am assuming you are) don’t like what someone says… they automatically pull the Beck or Hannity CARD? If not the Beck Card then the Bush Card…

Seriously? most Conservatives disliked Bush for his spending habits… But don’t tell a liberal that, because they would not believe them… Bush pushed us to the edge of the cliff, Obama is pushing us OVER the cliff… Sorry, Real Economics proves this out…

Granted Fox news is right leaning… but here is a News Flash for you… 60 percent of the Viewers of Fox News are from the Left (democrats)… There is a study out there that proves this…

If you listen to any Economist lately, they are not happy with the way the Country is Going… They back Jeff’s theories…

An

Ya, you have a point. I know that how the country feels about the economy makes a difference. The question is are people giving up on the American Dream concept? Yes, we are. Millennials are giving up on the normal work opportunities to get ahead. What isn’t being told is that they, as with many others who are now out of the “job” work force, have opted to be self-employed. Own their own small business, network marketing and so on. In many cases, those people are doing much better than those holding on to a job or two or three. People are adapting to the new economy trying to stay independent of government.
The problem is there are also more people becoming content on breaking the backs of successful people who still have good jobs, successful small businesses and successful with Network marketing careers. We are also becoming a welfare state and if 11 million more are added to that list, it may break your back along with others.
I find the culprit is the continuance of the progressive movement that focuses on trying to make us all free from failure, illness, disasters, environment, education, invasions and each other. Utopia is the word. The Marxist creed. It simply doesn’t work without destroying Liberty, free moral agency and desire to improve one’s self on their own.

Floyd, do you think “real economics” proves that “Obama is pushing us over the cliff?” I hope not! I don’t think you could find a single ‘real economist’ who believes things are worse now than when Obama took office. If you know one, please post a link! The only reason I always bring up Beck or Hannity or one of the other right wing mouthfoamers when I hear statements like this is because these types (Fox News, AM radio, World Net Daily, etc.) are virtually the only people that make these kinds of claims, and they have been predicting doom and gloom for a long time now and seem pretty invested in their views. I think a recession would make some of these people very happy.

Most of the stuff coming out of the right wing entertainment bubble is complete nonsense, but a lot of people believe it. I assumed Jeff must be one of those people when he repeated the old oft repeated conservative trophe about how “Obama has run up more debt than all the other presidents combined.” Well sure, maybe if you view things in the most literal way possible, using absolute dollars, ignoring inflation, GDP, and factors completely out of a presidents control - like the depression that was handed to him, but this isn’t the way economists view things because it makes no sense and tells you absolutely nothing. Even ignoring inflation both politifact and factcheck.org rated these statements as “false” when republicans made them during the last campaign. Obama actually made the same claim about Bush during his first campaign, and it was just as silly then. You could probably say that about every modern president. Think what the size of the economy was in the 50’s, and how much things cost, compared to now! Its kind of like when Bush used to always say that home ownership was at an all time high under his presidency. Even though we saw the complete disintegration of the housing market under his watch, it was a completely accurate statement, but one every single president before him could have made. Its called population growth.

What really matters of course is how much Obama’s budgets have added to the debt, and Obama is one of only two modern presidents that has actually cut the deficit, not increased it. And by the way, the other one was not Reagan, who’s budgets were never balanced, it was another democrat named Bill Clinton.

I’ve been hearing for 7 years now about how Obama was supposed to destroy the economy, and because the economy has only improved, according to almost every economic indicator, Republicans suddenly care about things like wealth inequality and the increase in part time workers, which have been trending negatively under Obama as they did under the last 5 presidents. Why are they suddenly concerned now? Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they are, but anyone who claims Obama’s policies had anything to do with these really doesn’t understand politics and history, Its even more irritating to hear this crap from the party who’s policies intentionally exacerbate these trends every chance they get.

I suppose its not too surprising then that there is a kind of self fulfilling prophecy bubble that views things as being much worse under Obama. We all like to see our predictions come to pass. Jeff is obviously a sincere nice guy and I suppose he could be right that we are moving into a recession, but I seriously doubt it. Not that any of us will change our minds either way. Its human nature to see what we expect to see. Its like those religious groups that predict the day the world will end. They never seem to lose many members when the world goes on pretty much the same way it always has. My confirmation bias was to see almost everything Bush did as wrong to a degree that I started to think he must be intentionally trying to damage the country. Of course I was wrong. So are you guys about Obama.

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Mike…

I sorry you refuse to listen to anything but the Obama loving Economist… That is really sad… You say crap about the right wing people, and don’t notice you are doing the exact same thing you are accusing the right of doing…

YES… There are people who are economist that says Obama with his Health Care system mandates, and spending is pushing us off the cliff. These guys I read do not have horse in the race (really don’t get into politics), they look at the factors in the economy and give their views.

Like I told you before, I don’t look at just one source… I try to find different views to try to see what is REAL and SPIN…

I have some background in accounting and economics, but I no expert…

I don’t listen to the beck’s or Hannity’s … etc. because they give me a headache. I do like Neil Cavuto because of his background…

Here is an interesting article to read: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21565623-america-could-do-better-barack-obama-sadly-mitt-romney-does-not-fit-bill-which-one

Floyd,

I did admit to my own confirmation bias in the last post. I would add though that I think I had a lot more data to support my views, even though they were overblown, than Obama haters do. You keep making claims and not supporting them. I asked you to name an economist that believes things are worse now than they were when Obama took office and you posted a 3 year old article that drew this conclusion:

“For all his businesslike intentions, Mr Romney has an economic plan that works only if you don’t believe most of what he says. That is not a convincing pitch for a chief executive. And for all his shortcomings, Mr Obama has dragged America’s economy back from the brink of disaster, and has made a decent fist of foreign policy. So this newspaper would stick with the devil it knows, and re-elect him.”

I didn’t find much to disagree with in the article (I’m an Economist Subscriber but I didn’t remember this article), and I do have many issues with Obama, believe it or not. I just find it odd that conservatives have managed to manufacture so much outrage for a president that has basically done his job and made things better for virtually everyone, particularly when he followed a guy that did the exact opposite who they supported wholeheartedly! You claim that conservatives didn’t support Bush, but I find virtually no evidence of this until after he left office. Some of the more vocal right wingers may have attacked him from the right occasionally, but every member of the right wing media entertainment complex supported him, and even accused those who didn’t of being unpatriotic.

I honestly think that conservatives almost have to paint a false picture of Obama, because to do otherwise calls their world view into question. But I’m sure you disagree.

Mike, I think I have an economist for you. The head of the Fed. In a statement about a week ago, she said that the economy is moving in a very positive way. They were looking at the possibility of returning interest rates to normal levels. Three or four days later the Fed comes out and lowers the Quarterly GDP to negative. That was a total contradiction of what her monitary policy was discussing. My trouble with these leaders is I don’t know what to believe or not to believe. I look at GDP, I look at debt, (I don’t see any of those clocks going backwards.), I look at spending. I look at the amount of people who have given up on looking for jobs, (they are no longer counted as unemployed. I look at unemployment. I look at how social programs and food stamps are growing. That is a terrible economic indicator. 1 in 6 are on some kind of government assistance. Look at all the red tape regulations that restrict business. I talk to my friends who own businesses. I talk to my tax accountant and he has horror stories. In my opinion there are a lot of smoke screens hiding the real stories. Our country is divided like, perhaps, never before. In many ways, economically, racially, religiously, anti-religously, etc. It is scary. You talk about reducing the deficit, Where specifically are you talking about. The debt is 18.5 trillion. The clock is speeding right along, unimpeded. Obama has turned the whole world into a refugee camp with his policies. Those are not illegals streaming into this country, they are refugees. My back ground is military and I have been there done that many times. I know a lot of truths you are clueless about. I know what we found in Iraq and I know where it went and who took it there. We are flat out in trouble and you can’t name a great person in either party who can solve it. Do you know how to solve any of the problems? give me a solution for anything. Mike, if this goes ugly and problems remain unsolved, I have some impressions of things that will happen. I think that in the next few years we will go deep into depression and tens of millions will loose all of their retirement. The country will go on the verg of diviision. One particular state will take the vote in about 2019. Its scary and perhaps the scariest thing is our politicians have taken a creed. NEVER, EVER, LET A GOOD PROBLEM GO TO WASTE BY SOLUTION. They don’t have the courage to do anything. Now police are standing down in the face of criminals. Do you remembver the riots in the sixties? I do. Are you ready for a repeat performance? Are you ready to watch cities burn? What about ISIS, they are promising to strike us here. maybe you are not worried about them. I know about the group crossing the Arizona border with enough explosives and weapons to blow up an army depot. Do you know about that. By the way we did catch them . Guess what expired on the 31st of May.
Jeff

Hi Jeff. I asked for an economist that makes the claim that things are worse now than they were before Obama took office. I think that would be a lot more difficult than what you’re claiming, namely that we might possibly encounter a recession in the near future, which is true always… Also, there have been many times in the past where we have had 2 negative economic quarters and no recession and we’ve also had recessions without 2 negative quarters. In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In the recession beginning in December 2007 and ending in June 2009, real GDP declined in the first, third, and fourth quarters of 2008 and in the first quarter of 2009. The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” We are not seeing anything like this currently, but of course you only see recessions by looking backwards, and no one can predict when one will occur.

Economic data is often revised as new information comes in. This happens under Republican and Democratic presidents, and isn’t considered to be anything nefarious by any economist I know.

Also, remind me of the 31st of May thing? Is that the one where Obama tried to blow up a nuke or something? I get my conspiracy stories all mixed up. Anyway, I think you are a little more worried than you need to be. Food stamp use went up because so many people were unemployed, and its declining now. Its true that 1/6 people are on some kind of government assistance, but that’s only if you count retired people, which is a group that has been increasing as the baby boomers retire. Also, I’d question your sources about a lot of this. Immigration is actually way down under Obama and there are less people coming across the border now than there have been for at least a decade, as I recall.

There is no solution to our problems, only if you imagine that our problems are much bigger than they actually are. We’ve been in far worse places than we are in now. The ‘solution’ I see is nothing magical. Its just constant vigilance and electing leaders who actually care about making things better, rather than just their own political careers. I’m actually pretty optimistic about the future, so if we run into a depression in the next few years as you seem to believe, make sure and come back here and gloat. :slight_smile: So far though, all I see is people complaining about the most minor things, things they never seemed to care about before, simply because they don’t like the current president. But the demonstrative truth is, even if you don’t like him, you are still better off because of his policies, whether you want to believe it or not.

City councils in Seattle, San Francisco, and now even Los Angeles raising minimum wages by huge amounts will have a massive backlash. And it’s all left-leaning politicians who have no clue about the real world. Restaurant menus will be an app on your phone. There goes a ton of counter workers. Cleaners in office towers will be cut back to half of the frequency the offices are cleaned. Hotels will only clean the rooms if you stay four days or more. Freebies such as free meals will be gone. Staff parking will disappear as the space can be rented to adjacent business. Folks previously above minimum will demand raises equal to the amount of the minimum increase. Many businesses will simply fold as their profitability is under-mined.
If your city has no labor shortage, wage increases should only equal cost of living increases. New business growth will now avoid these cities with huge minimums. Two-tier wage minimums can be one solution. H. S. kids should be paid $1.00 or so less than a reasonable minimum for adults and H. S. grads. Business leaders should always be involved when wage increases are mandated. I ran my restaurant for over 26 years. I just shake my head in disbelief.

Socialism never works in the long run. Mans greed always takes over. Only with God can it work.