Digging into the numbers

I looked at numbers in another thread and some of this stuff warrants its own topic. Here are a few nuggets:

Dastrup shoots .583 (2) and .417 (3). Only Rylan’s 3P% is better with a small sample size at .500. Also, Rylan shoots .714 on 2P%…

For context:

Yoeli shoots .575 and .229.
Nixon: .607 and .294.
Luke: .505 and N/A
Eli: .565 and .410
Zac: .672 and .315 (discounting Ry, Zac leads the team in 2P%…go figure)

The per 40/per 100 data is particularly revealing.

  • I thought TJ was a hack machine for some reason (2.3), but he’s actually the best on the team at not fouling. And when he does foul it’s often a frustration foul or…questionable. That is easily correctable.
  • Payton and Yo are remarkably similar in per 40 with a few exceptions. Payton is a much better 3P% but he also is at 3.5 TO vs 2.8 for yo. Also yo is the 2nd best on the team for fouls at 2.6 and payton is at 4.8 (Nix is 4.2). But that’s not all. Rebounds: Payton 9.8 yo 10.3 (!!!) (1st and 2nd on the team). Blocks 2.2 for both (Tied 1st). Assists: 2.6 to 2.8. Payton and yo are almost identical on Defensive rating at 92.2 and 94.5 respectively. Rebound % is another one: 15.6 and 16.3.
  • Comparing Payton to Luke is another interesting one. Outside of Kajon Brown and Ry and the Shaw Tank, Luke leads the team in fouls per 40 with 5.7. Luke also shoots the worst of the team at the line with .582. I would foul him on principle.
  • Payton is also third in PER at 19.1, Leads in effective fg% at .600, second in true shooting % at .613, and is fourth in +/-.
  • Points per 40 is what you would expect with Eli and yo at 20 apiece, but get this third place goes to Dastrup with 16 and fourth is tied with Nix and TJ at 14. Wow. That’s interesting.
  • Irrelevant but hilarious: Braidan Shaw played 1 minute and had one foul all season. Therefore he averages 40 fouls per 40. LOL And he registers zero other statistics in that one minute. Sad shaw tank.
  • Cannon and shire are virtually identical in the per 40 with a few variables. Cannon is a better thief (leads the team at 2.0, though Troy does have 2.2 but it’s a small sample size). And he fouls less. Both of them shoot around .350 for three.
  • Nix is first in offensive rating, shire is last.

Interesting total stats:

  • Eli, yo, and TJ all cleared 1000 minutes. Shire is at around 800, zac 600, mckay almost 500. Luke is only at 451, which makes him the 7th man on the team. Nixon has 337 and Dastrup has 216. This is obviously affected by Nixon’s injury.

Take aways:

  • Nixon and Dastrup are clearly effective. Yet Dastrup still does not get enough minutes and Nixon, while playing more now, needs more minutes. I love Luke, but it’s time. I would even bump yo to the three for 5 minutes a game. Instead of flipping dastrup back and forth from 5 to 4, keep him at the 5 and mold the position around him. Nixon can take minutes there too as well as minutes at the 4 in backup to Yo. I wouldn’t mind trying him at the three as well against a slower player. He’s only 6 7 I believe.
  • Yo needs a shooting coach. Nix and Dastrup just need green lights.
  • Shire MUST be more aggressive on offense.
  • TJ, Yo, and Eli need to play fewer minutes or we risk injury. The science looks solid for playing in shorter bursts and breaking up minutes early on before reaching a ‘burn out’ peak phase In theory around the end of an overtime period.

Further questions to be answered later:

  • What correlates the most with minutes played? What stats is Rose the most sensetive to?
  • What happened when we started conference play that plays havoc with how we play.

Not really surprising for Seljaas as he attempts more 3s than he does 2s. In recent games he has been the beneficiary of some great assists at the basket, coupled with an average of two 2 point shots a game will make the average go up quickly. He has been a lot more selective in recent games, probably due to lack of confidence in his 3 point shot. That said he continues to get abused in the box where he is really is playing out of position

The assist thing is true, but part of that is flashing to the right spot at the right time. I’ll give him that. He has is so out of position. I want him to be my back up 2.

I think everyone expected him to shoot lights out from three including Zach. It’s rough for a shooter if you start having self doubts. I expect him to work hard and be much more consistent next year. His stroke is really nice-just not going down

Oh yeah I agree. He’ll come around. I imagine if they shifted him down a position so he didn’t have to work as hard on defense would make his offensive production jump.

As I play around with this, there really isn’t anything with an obvious correlation beyond fouls. And that’s such an obvious conclusion you don’t even need to see numbers to know that. There are a couple outliers to that trend though. Luke Worthington, though he only played the 7th most minutes is such a foul machine that he is still an outlier. Dastrup on the other hand is below the trendline.

Also, Mckay and Hardnet are respectively below and above the trend line and that might suggest something to do with their style of defense or it could be tiredness. Mckay is slightly below in minutes.

Arguing facts not in evidence, counselor! Objection overruled! :slight_smile:

You’re assuming that Rose is “data driven.” I don’t think Rose pours over stats and makes coaching decisions accordingly. He has been terrible throughout his BYU career at making adjustments. And being sensitive to this or that stat would represent showing that he is and adjusting.

lol. That’s pretty good.

Honestly, I went fishing and came up empty, no solid correlations. There might be something more useful if you got into the breakdowns of particular lineups, but I’ll concede that Dave probably isn’t looking at it and any correlation would be just that, not necessarily causational. I think he goes by gut feeling.

So then what feels right to Dave?

no comment

Ha. That’s not what I read the first time. At least he’s in a final four. He might even win!

I love the stat breakdown Tyler, because it is interesting and more importantly, it proves what I have been saying about Dastrup since the beginning of the season. In fact, his early season stats were even more impressive than the ones you listed because he hadn’t been beaten down like a red headed stepchild by Rose yet.

The whole thing makes me sick honestly. I lost a lot of respect for Rose this season. He has been terrible in so many ways…

So… while it only makes me more upset than I have been, it is probably time to stop beating the dead horse this season and suggesting what can be done to right the sinking ship. This team has underperformed… again, but probably as bad or worse than any team of Rose’ I can remember in the recent past.

It’s disappointing.

It’s not just him. Several guys have tailed off in conference. Part of it is exhaustion, then confidence, failures to adjust to better scouting. In summary and repeating what we’ve said over and over again:

  • Balance minutes/shots
  • counter runs earlier
  • Put guys in their natural positions
  • Move the ball and increase off-ball player movement to be less reliant on Dribble penetration.

Who knows. Maybe one day.

Totally agree with what you are saying. It seems like it is basketball 101 to me but I’m not a veteran coach who plays his favorites. I know for a fact that Dastrups fall off has nothing to do with exhaustion but that is another story.

Great data as always Tyler I had never seen the stats before but it certainly backs up our suspicions that Dastrip should be playing major minutes

Since we are playing for nothing I would get Burgerson and Dastrup all the playing time they can get

The more I think about it, the way I would frame the strategy is in terms of ceilings. What lineups would in the future give us the highest ceiling? Luke will always be a limited 5 and a team is limited by it’s weakest multiplier or link.

Well in my mind there is a potential for this to go like this:

Next year:
PG TJ Hardnet?
SG Nick? Rylan?
SF: Eli / zac?
PF: Yo
C: Dastrup

2 years:
PG: Senior TJ
SG: Junior Rylan
SF: Senior Zac
PF: Senior Yo (unlikely I know, but there’s a chance) if not him, then you’ve got senior Nix
C: Senior Dastrup

That’s a big tough lineup with a lot of shooting and potentially decent defense.

Gavin Baxter - 4 star, 6’7" with long arms. Recuited several Pac12 and Wake Forest.

Oh yeah! I forgot about that kid! That would be an interesting addition. Mission right now right? I’ll be very curious how he looks when he gets back.

Also, I rechecked the recruits and this kolby lee and Connor Harding are both 4 stars with decent size.

Connor Harding played with Gavin Baxter in AAU team of Utah Prospect which I found on DN. Both are due back from mission to play 2018.
Kolby Lee, is he playing or sitting with the team this year? Redshirt? Yes all three are 4 stars.

I thought he was coming off the mission for the next year?

A lot of good looking and athletic defenders. I want a bunch of Jackson Emery’s. That’s what I’m hoping for from Harding. Lee I don’t know as much. Gavin Baxter could be a lot of different things.

I don’t know if Kolby is on his mission. Per Idaho Stateman: he is in a midst of serving a mission in Australia.

And he looks like will start 2018. Still not clear where he is at.