normally the answer is win…not this year…
This year they need to do three things:
1.) they need to win
2.) they need to win impressively to pass the eye test
3.) they need to improve
The need to win:
Gonzaga will likely need to win every game up to the conference tournament final to qualify for an at large.
Saint Mary’s may not qualify for an at-large even if they make it to the tournament final and lose.
Either way for either team to get an at-large means BYU loses.
So…
BYU must ensure that neither Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s qualifies for an at-large berth in the NCAA Championship tournament…
But even then due to the weakness of both Gonzaga’s and Saint Mary’s Out of Conference wins BYU beating them almost insures they get knocked out of the tournament consideration. meaning that the impressiveness of BYU beating them, by the very fact that BYU beats them, lessens the impact of the win.
BYU must impress
Given the weakness of BYU’s schedule, lack of marque wins, and lack of marque wins by any other team in the conference, BYU must win impressively
BYU has to get enough wins…nearly impossible at this point…but also pass the eye test…KenPom ratings do much to inform the public’s opinion about the eye test. (By the public at this point, I’m talking the only public that counts, the Committee membership,)
More games like the game last night and the team will not be impressive enough to pass the eye test for consideration.
A ten point win over a so so team that the defence let back into the game not once but twice may be impressive for Cougarfans but does not impress the casual observer…ho-hum they won by a margin that says they couldn’t, or at any rate didn’t put them away break their will, master them
BYU must do more than win it must improve.
Even while the team has continued to win, it has stopped the early season improvement. Most especially it has stopped its per possession improvement. The NCAA selection committee is weaning itself from the primitiveness of the RPI calculation rankings. It is starting to realize that the quality of the team matters and that the best way to measure that is per possession statistics.
Per possession stats, BYU is simply not at a tournament level–on either offence or defence.
The offence has got to improve…TJ has to get his head straight, Yoeli can’t play as badly as he did last night, Elijah must do his best imitation of KC only with the actual scoring that he is capable of. The team must also have a fourth player step it up every night preferably one of them regularly so the committee can say the name…my bet would be Dastrup who has finally convinced the coaches to get him consistent minutes or Nixon assuming he gets back.
Winning games at the FT line does win games but does not win them impressively enough to pass the eye test or to climb the per possession ranking chart.
The defence has to continue to improve…and especially show it against Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s…it is possible for the team defence to improve but against the dregs of the conference nobody that counts will notice because defence always looks good against bad teams. The letdowns where they let San Francisco back in the game not once but twice have got to disappear or the team will be enjoying a third straight NIT…
All of what you say is accurate. I do, however, enjoy watching this team play. They have a lot of heart and never give up. I was sure they were going to fold a couple of times last night, but persevered with no one playing particularly great. Kudos to a gritty team
I think this teams defense is much better than in the past. We lost the SM game because the coaching staff decided to double down further on Landale leaving their 3 point shooters open. Had they just stuck to the game plan and let Landale get his, we would have won.
Any road victory is a good win. Especially in these crackerbox gyms. Also, when they overcame their youth, BYU went on a 16-4 run to win. This is good going forward.
You hit the nail on the head. Even when one of the two stars is off some of the other guys can step up and produce. Every one of the top 8 players this year has made a key contribution to a win. The bottom line is win all the games you should win and get a couple against Gonzaga and St. Marys. To suggest Childs and Bryant have to produce big every game isn’t the case. BYU has to have other players produce when one of the stars if off. So far a few others have stepped on several occasions. I think we can over analyze things by suggesting that if Bryant or Childs is off BYU can’t beat a good team. That isn’t really the case. It is an easier chore if both stars bring their A game but it isn’t an absolute necessity. Good teams win in a variety of ways. Sometimes when the shots don’t fall they play good enough defense and sometimes they just outscore a hot shooting team. A good team has to find a way to win when one guy if off or one aspect of their game is off.
That is true, but the question is whether or not BYU is one of those teams.
Now, having said that I just can’t leave grasshoppers comments alone -
So Landale didn’t get his? I guess 31 points and who knows how many rebounds doesn’t count as “getting his”… LOL! There is absolutely no way you can say this with any credibility. The strategy should be to allow the biggest and best player on the team to score at will?
Also, Gonzaga seems to be doing just fine in the “crackerbox” gyms. They don’t have any issues playing in these little venues. That is really getting on my nerves, the small gym comments. It’s stinking basketball, just play the stupid game.
That is correct. You don’t drop Hardnett deep into the lane leaving the 3 point shooters open. We traded several times a 2 for a 3. 4 or 5 times. 4 or 5 extra points to SM.
LOL… cherrypicking one or two plays again trying to convince everyone it was the difference between winning and losing when the real difference is that they were outplayed and outcoached by St. Mary’s… AGAIN.
most years I would agree…
this is not most years
SMC did their lousy job of scheduling and then lost their two most legit games so they are on the outside looking in unless they beat Gonzaga in season as well as have fewer low tier losses than they usually do. They usually have 2.
Gonzaga had more losses against teams they shouldn’t have than usual out of conference and barely won a couple that should not have been even close. So BYU beating them doesn’t mean as much it normally would. That BYU has beat them three years in a row on their own court also means that a BYU road win there is just a ho hum normal event not the bombshell it was three years ago.
If BYU beats them any of the three expected games Gonzaga may well not get an at large invite.
No, it’s understanding that the game is broken down into segments. The final segment is when we were up by 8 and then tried something new. Nothing was broke but the coach tried to fix Landale anyways. In the final segment, there were 3 or 4 plays that gave them the shots to close the gap and tie the game.
In HS, I lived near Kelly Canyon ski area, my buds and I would ski several times a week. I started hanging out with skiers that headed over to Grand Targee and Jackson. That was a whole different world, with extreme runs, rated amongst the toughest in the entire world. When I came back to Kelly Canyon, I could ski backwards…asleep if I wanted.
Now look at Gonzaga’s early season games and who they play vs. everyone else in the WCC and their early games…case closed
That is why this nonsense about “crackerbox” gyms is ridiculous. It is a basketball floor with the same dimensions as giant arena’s and a hoop at each end of the floor.
Just play the game and win. Some hoppers just need to quit complaining.
Now the team is playing for two things.
Primarily seed in the NIT, games at home at the end of the season would help.
Seeding in the WCC Tournament…Nope…whatever the seed, Zaga and SMC stand in the way.
WCC Conference Regular Season Championship…
Need to Win…
Need to Improve…
NCAA chances are gone…earliest in the season for a Rose team. Reasons:
1.) team improvement insufficient.
2.) Out of Conference scheduling insufficient.
Possibly the two are related.
Very real possibility that 4th or worse could happen. There are a lot of issues and we have discussed some of them to no end. I don’t want to rehash the ones that I have mentioned.
It is frustrating… because that is 2 wcc losses that could easily have been wins and they choked them both away.
Good analogy. I remember skiing Alta and Sundance and Park City and not being satisfied and heading to Vail and Aspen. Quite a switch from skiing Brundage, and Bogus Basin growing up
