Here’s my thinking.. I’ll start with the team is very capable of 11-1 and make adjustments as follows:
Yes, all Spring and early summer “meshing” with RJ now wasted, but JR was very average. I’ll go with what ALL non BYU goggle wearers in the outside world were saying about JR. This well could be an upgrade (the word h. doesn’t want to hear) at QB over the course of the season. Remember, JR was VERY mediocre the last 5 games. He truely was Riley 2.0. No adjustment to record because Retzlaff now gone. Still 11-1. Note, homers on BYU SN said not having JR will cost us 1-2 games. Naaaahhhh.
Defense and special teams are excellent. Last year they were near perfect. 40% skill, 30% coaching, esp. Hill and 30% Luck, including injuries. Odds really not good they will again max out on luck/no injuries. Defense and Special teams probably won 6+ games last year. That is a ridiculous number that rarely happens on good P4 teams. They bailed out the offense way too much. Won’t happen this year. Add 1 to 2 losses. Let’s go with adjusted to 9 and 3.
ARod factor will raise it’s head and lower odds to win some games. He especially, but BYU generally has a “play the gritty guy” mentality. A lot less than before, but still there. ARod will start Hillstead, and the monster question is will he be Riley 3.0 and cost a few games because he’ll get the yips a la Retzlaff (which he never really overcame, just marginal improvement - again, JR’s last 5 games were really not very good). ARod will make some very costly calls this year and D won’t bail him out to the “almost every time” level like last year. Logically, can’t happen. ARod Adjustment - will cost us 1 loss and 3 “near miss” losses. He’s really not that good at this level of college football. I considered 2 losses because of ARod, but Hillstead will NOT be Riley 3.0 and whatever combo of QBs, they will bail out ARod in spite of his “Bidening” (think what Obama re Joe) So now at the I’m going with adjustment of just one loss so 8-4.
Just because factor. Ok, gut feel is we can’t go 8 and 4. We’ll again find ways to win. This team is too talented to lose 4 games and go 5 and 4 in conference. So my final prediction is 10 and 2 just because. End of the day, they are my team!
As for ARod. I have not quit wanting Sitake to find a really good OC but I have shut down the “Fire ARod” bluster just because we were 11-2. You take the brain farts from Retzlaff out of the picture and BYU should of been playing instead of ASU. So I have turned down the volume on fire ARod just because Sitake is not going to fire him.
Lastly, still on the UofU hit piece. Convinced they put her up to it.
Respect your thoughts on ARod- 11 and 2 bought him 2-3 years
I will give him credit on recruiting as he is a key part of that process. I think the huge upgrade in recruiting success is mostly the whole new appeal of playing for BYU. Being in P4 is huge.
Let me rephrase that
Being highly successful in a P4 is a huge factor and ARod is part of that.
Play calling is better but QB development is really subpar. With Bear and Lyons there will be no excuses. I hope ARod develops Heisman Trophy candidates with those two.. It will be a true measure of his skill in developing QBs. If at least one become 5th or better in Heisman voting than ARod passes the test.
I think Sitake and co also revamped the recruiting process. He went into great detail about the changes they made after the Tiger Buchmeier 1st try. They found that Oregon was tailor fitting the game around these elite recruits using their stats to prove they are NFL material.
I would be happy with 8-4, three in a row against Utah. BYU fans forget history too quickly and get out of their heads with recent past (11-2) and think it will be onwards and upwards. The reality is we and ASU won’t sneak up on anybody this year (ASU’s fan base is more delusional than we are, and think they are going undefeated. Their reality is Cam Skattebo was more responsible for last year than Sam Leavitt. He is irreplaceable.
I am increasingly less interested in this era of paid athletes, constant transfers, etc. It’s not as much fun to follow teams that have little continuity and with players who won’t be there for years.
As for the recruiting process change, I read an interesting article about how Steve Young helped with Lyons, and how Holmoe and Kalani needed to change how BYU recruits.
Maybe realize that now BYU gets to recruit players that would only go to other teams who paid them a lot under the table. See, BYU played by the rules while Notre Dame and others did not. Now, we get to compete with them because pay is all above board now. Nothing else has changed. The kids still want to win and someday play in the NFL.
Read that too. Really a good read. I really like Lyons mom’s response to Steve young what can we do to improve recruiting (compared to Stanford and USC). “Do you have a pen and paper”
Message sent. Message received.
What I found funny is that Steve Young was living in the basement apartment of Lyons mom parents, while playing for the 49ers. Who else would do that beside Steve Young?
I heard he was a frugal guy, but really? a basement apartment? LOL
there’s no credible evidence that Notre Dame paid players under the table before NIL was legalized. While rumors and speculation have always swirled around big-time college programs, nothing concrete has surfaced to suggest Notre Dame broke the rules.
Please provide some evidence besides what you assumed to be true… So, one credible article that even suggest that ND paid players before the NIL.
One of the least clever forms of argument/response in a debate. And you claim you “win” debates. Arguing with the 5th grader selling lemonade at the corner does not count. You’re not very good at this. Give up already.
You sound like Biden. Are you sure you’re not a closet democrat?
