Scouting Gonzaga-here we go

Basketball
#1

In order to get to a #1 ranking in all the land, you have to do a number of thing right. Above all, you have to win on the road. Gonzaga has beat Florida, Iowa State, Zona, and Tennessee on the road…Tenn. just beat Kentucky. This may well be Coach Few’s best team. They are sound in every area of the game. I want to discuss Offense/Defense ratings for just a moment to prove a point…

Ken Pomeroy back in Nov had BYU with a 112 O/96 D rating. Gonzaga 116 O/96 D rating. fairly close, right?
Jan 31/2017, BYU’s rating is 107.8 O/98.5 D while Gonzaga is 121 O/88 D
in other words BYU’s offensive rating is worse today then it was back in Nov while our defensive rating has worsened. Gonzaga’s offensive rating has steadily improved to the point that they are ranked #7 in the entire land while ranked #3 on defense out of 350 D1 programs.

SMC, top 10 offense, top 50 defense…BYU ranks 107 in offense, 72 in defense.

BYU’s dynamics would certainly be different if Bryant had been healthy rather than coming in raw in Dec. like he did. The lose of Davis is also a big factor in BYU’s demise.

If I were Coach Few, I would focus on getting Mika/Childs in foul trouble=blow out. BYU has to defend the middle to have a chance. The fact that GU is excellent at penetrating and BYU’s history of guards, well, not guarding does not look good for BYU’s chances. Remember…GU drives to dish, not to score. Its the 2nd and 3rd option that kills you, not the driver. I have written about this for years. It is a Few trait.

On defense, GU has three 7 footers, That does not bode will for Mika, just leaning on him on both D/O takes it out of you. Childs is not a big scorer so BYU’s only chance is to have an out of body night from 3 land.

On offense, GU has Wash. transfer PG Nigel Williams-Gross #5, Jr and ranked #6 nationally…he will drive and dish to wide open Josh Perkins or Jorden Mathews, who knock down 3s at a 40% plus rate, Missouri transfer, Forward Johnathan Williams knocks down 3s at a 46% rate. This guys are all Jr.s or Sr. s.

Our young team will be as lost as they were at SMC. Vegas has the game 88-74, and a 91% chance of BYU losing, In all my years of watching numbers, I have never seen such a disparity for a BYU team playing at home.

#2

I will be very grateful if the loss is only 14 pts.

#3

Yes, by the numbers BYU does not have a chance. However, this is why we have upsets, numbers don’t account for everything.
Maybe it’s just the blue goggles, maybe my wife needs to replace the juice in the fridge, but I expect BYU to win this one.
Points to ponder: Coach Rose is one of the few coaches that has multiple wins against Few at home.
Coach Rose has at least against win against Gonzaga in all but one of the last 6 years. Including beating Gonzaga on their home floor when they were ranked #2.
This is at home against a team that they expect to be tough, it will be a close game. Close games at home tend to favor the home team.
I recognize the numbers don’t support me, however, I am planning on BYU winning.

#4

I hate to say it, but I think this will be a 25+ point loss.

#5

I don’t think it has anything to do with “numbers”. What numbers are you talking about?

If they win, how exactly is BYU going to go about doing it?

They did beat a weak Gonzaga team last year in Spokane and it was in Spokane the year before in a game that meant nothing. In fact they have done it regularly, but those teams and seasons felt different. That’s why it isn’t about any numbers, it’s about feel.

I think the key factor in BYU winning or losing the game will actually be the officiating. What will the officials allow the players to do? Will the style favor BYU? If Mika gets into foul trouble the game is over. If Haws or Emery get into trouble it will be almost as tough. It the officials allow a reckless, haphazard style of play that may favor BYU.

I said I thought BYU had a chance and I thought it was about 1 in 10. That is what the oddsmakers are giving it. If BYU was sitting at 3 or 4 losses (Illinois, USC, SMU) instead of 7 (UVU, Valpo, USD, SCU) I would give them a better than 50/50 chance. I honestly think they could do it. I just don’t see anybody ready to carry this team when necessary and I see no bench (something that never got the attention it deserved) so I think they will be hard pressed to win the game.

#6

The “numbers” I am talking about would be as follows:
BYU PPG 82.6 Gonzaga 85.2; Points allowed BYU 72.7 Gonzaga 61.4; FG % BYU 46.8 Gonzaga 51.2; RPI BYU 96 Gonzaga 13; Ranking BYU None Gonzaga 1, etc. By the numbers, BYU loses this game. By my gut, BYU wins this game. I just hope my gut isn’t wrong.
With that said, attacking me because my gut tells me something different than your gut tells you seems, shall we say, grasshopperesque. I never claimed to have facts to back me up, in fact, I stated that “maybe my wife needs to replace the juice in the fridge”.

#7

I’m sorry you felt like it was an attack on my part. That was an unintended consequence I guess. Your post is legitimate and your numbers back it up.

I am definitely having my most jaded season of BYU basketball. The beginning of seasons are always filled with hopes and hypes and blue goggled dreams and then it is always a let down. This season had really high hopes and well…

Sorry about that Richard…

#8

Well, my best bud–highly embedded in the BYU athletic landscape–texted me today saying “Dude say I’m crazy but I think we have a chance if we shoot lights out from deep.” I told him, “What, like back when we were not almost the worst 3pt% team in a crap conference?” We have been beaten BAD this year SEVERAL times by teams Gonzaga is beating by 25 points while on cruise control the last 10 minutes. I think if we shoot lights out we lose by 8-10. If Mika doesn’t play at least 30 minutes we lose by 20. I see lots of subs playing the last 6 or 7 minutes and the Zags running 25-30 seconds off the clock to finish it mercifully. And I am that eternal optimist who thought–albeit with a healthy Bryant and Davis–that we were a LOCK tournament team with a 7+ seed…oh man that crow tastes nasty…

#9
#10

And this is why we will win. We have them thinking we will be a pushover. We will come up with surprises galore and steal this one!

#11

GU’s average margin of victory is 24. BYU is ever so slightly, better than average. My guess is GU by 23.
I will make one prediction on a closer game. If Haws fouls out we could come within 10. Two reasons… Haws must be playing D if he fouls out and that would be a sight to see! Second, Beo or another reserve, who hasn’t seen enough playing time, will get into the game…,Few will walk over and shake Beo’s hand after having discussed the possibly of Beo going to GU and being told that Beo was not going anywhere but BYU…, will rattle Rose and he may leave the subs in the game for a longer period of time thus giving BYU an advantage of fresh legs at the 33 min mark of the game… Which we never have

#12

Now is the time for a sneak attack grasshopper…

Only down by 16 at halftime… Gonzaga will never suspect it. :astonished:

#13

Another woulda, coulda, shoulda… but not so extreme as I will stop at shoulda.

I guess losing by only 10 is a sort of moral victory but there were plenty of opportunities. I kind of feel bad for Gonzaga being undefeated. If they go into the ncaa tournament like this it will be tough for them in the second round when they play a really good team with nothing to lose.

Mika - disappeared in the second half
Haws - wanted to hug him and punch him at the same time
Childs - tentative at first but he sure stepped up in the second half
Bryant - hard to say, mostly disappointing
Emery - still not a lot of improvement in my opinion, he did nothing
Rose - didn’t see much from him at all
Guinn - had a couple good plays
Kaufusi - looked like he has been playing football most of the season
Beo - he really stepped up, when the water bottles needed filling
Dastrup - great to see him leading the cheers on the sideline
Aytes - did a good job getting towels for the LP3
Shaw - saw him jump at 3 point shooters a couple times
Leifson - kept his seat warm for sure
Frampton - I wonder if “he feels like we do”?

Not a terrible loss, but not much different than most of us expected… well, at least those who know what is going on out on the court most of the time. BYU is now in a third place tie with Santa Clara, a team they lost to by 8 on the road and beat by 30 at home… that pretty much sums up how frustrating it is to be a CougarFan.

#14

Looks like the “grasshopper” got lost amongst the crickets…

chirp chirp chirp

#15

Had to work late. Bad 1st half shooting. But I like the fight and we had our chances.

#16

Mika - disappeared in the second half–
BECAUSE WE ABANDONED LOW POST FOR HIGH PICK AND ROLLS BUT BRYANT NEVER LOOKED TO HIM
Haws - wanted to hug him and punch him at the same time
NOT MANY FRESHMEN DROP 29 ON THE #1 TEAM IN THE COUNTRY. VERY HIGH CEILING. HIS D WAS ATROCIOUS.
Childs - tentative at first but he sure stepped up in the second half
HE IS A BALLER AND A BRAWLER. WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE BYU GREATS AT PF
Bryant - hard to say, mostly disappointing
WHAT, LIKE WHEN HE WOULD DRIBBLE AWAY 25 SECONDS BEFORE FORCING ANOTHER SHOT? AND ANOTHER?
Emery - still not a lot of improvement in my opinion, he did nothing
GIVE HIM A BREAK. HE HAD THE FLU AND HAD NOTHING TO GIVE. WE CAN’T BEAT GOOD TEAMS WITHOUT HIM.
Rose - didn’t see much from him at all
I’M DONE THINKING OF EXCUSES FOR HIS LACK OF D AND REFUSAL/INABILITY TO SHOOT.
Guinn - had a couple good plays
ONLY PERIMETER DEFENDER WHO WOULD CLOSE OUT STRONG WITHOUT LEAVING HIS FEET. I WAS IMPRESSED.
Kaufusi - looked like he has been playing football most of the season
NFL SCOUTS HAVE BEEN CALLING ABOUT HIM. WILL HAVE A MONSTER SEASON NEXT YEAR. VERY NICE KID TOO.
Beo - he really stepped up, when the water bottles needed filling
SHOULD GET ALL OF LJ ROSE’S MINUTES, STARTING YESTERDAY
Dastrup - great to see him leading the cheers on the sideline
WE LIKE IT WHEN HE AND SHAW “ROW THE BOAT.” SOMEHOW PATHETIC, RIDICULOUS, AND AWESOME ALL AT ONCE.
Aytes - did a good job getting towels for the LP3
6’5" AND EARTHBOUND DOESN’T WORK VS 5 SEVEN FOOTERS.
Shaw - saw him jump at 3 point shooters a couple times
THAT IS HIS SPECIALTY ON D. WILD, JUMPING CLOSE OUTS. ZAGS SALIVATING AT THE MEMORIES…
Leifson - kept his seat warm for sure
IS HE STILL ON THE TEAM?
Frampton - I wonder if “he feels like we do”?
YES HE DOES–WHEN TJ MADE BACK TO BACK 3s I SAW FRAMPTON SAY “OOH BABY I LOVE YOUR WAY.”

Fun game to watch. Zags are good and Few is a good dude. Bryant may want to skip the film of him trying to guard Williams Goss in the second half. Wow that was NOT pretty. Coulda used Emery there for sure…

#17

Yes, it was an entertaining game to watch. I wish they hadn’t been down so big early in the game. The ending might have been different but I’m not going to talk about the woulda, coulda part of it.

There is improvement here and with maturity, Haws will be a leader in the future. Maybe maturity and some time in the weight room.

Thanks for catching on to my Frampton reference… :sunglasses:

#18

I understand getting up for a game like this and playing hard. I liked the fight as well, but why don’t they give 100% like that every game? Why not fight like that against San Diego or Santa Clara?

I’m okay with a loss like that but not those others. Gonzaga fights and plays hard EVERY game. Why doesn’t BYU give 100%? No excuse.

#19

The difference with Goss and Bryant is the upper body muscular strength. Hope Bryant gets stronger. Mika wasn’t open for him to pass it to him. Mika didn’t do well I the first half either. He needs to stick around two more years. Ainge was there to see him and I’m sure was disappointed.
Shooting in the 1st half did us in. We come out slow in every game.
The 1-3-1 was more effective this game. It was because we were very active in it.
Haws needs a lot more strength but his D is not as bad as you make it.

#20

Actually, Bryant is one of the strongest players on the team according to his teammates (that was before Kaufusi joined the team). I’d say the big difference between Goss and Bryant is his leadership, decision making and skill level. When you shoot 12-18, 7-7 from the line and score 33pts, you have played about as efficient a game as you can ask. He’s an elite player. Bryant was 4-13, 3-4 from the line and scored 12 pts. Whenever BYU made a run, Goss made a big shot. Few says that Goss is a student of the game and a coach on the floor. Bryant would do well to pattern his game after Goss. The player that stood out to me was Haws. Yes, he’s not a great defender but how many times did Haws penetrate and make something happen? Haws has incredible range. He was 4-9 from the 3pt line (44%). The rest of the team shot less than 13% from the arc. BYU would have lost this game by 25+pts were it not for Haws. It would have been nice had Emery been healthy but “thems the breaks!” BYU was fun to watch with the exception of a few stretches at the start of the game where they just played like a young team. I hope BYU gained the confidence that they can hang with these guys if they just execute better and make better decisions.