Scouting Kansas State, and BYU's chances

Football
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ESPN FPI Predicts BYU vs Kansas State, Updates BYU’s Projected Win Total (msn.com)

EPSN has K St as the #1 leader in the Big 12, mostly on how they completely destroyed Arizona. (the same Az team that won 7 straight, the P12 and killed Ok in their bowl game last year)

1 to be fair, Az came into the Big 12 as a overhyped contender based on the previous year.

2 The blowout has KSt’s QB, Avery Johnson on the Heisman watch, This kid makes the game look SLOW-QB rating of 73. @ 6’2, 200 lbs, averages 2 TDs per game in the air. he runs a 10.4 100yd, and that is a problem for BYU as Arizona found out, Johnson had 110yds running when Zona’s pocket pressure broke down.
Can BYU handle Kansas State QB Avery Johnson on Saturday? – Deseret News
BYU has struggled to contain running QBs. This kid will be the best duel threat QB BYU faces all season.

3 But Johnson is a Soph. and the Game is at 8:30 Mtn and KSt has not seen a defense as good as BYU’s…and we are fully aware of Johnson’s legs…and # 15 nationally rated BYU’s defense can defend WOs one on one… and we are home.

3 This will be BYU’s toughest test by a mile. KSt returned 8 starters on D. They stopped Az rushing, only 62 yds, made them one dimensional

4 After a shaky start, Retzaiff had himself a complete game vs. Wy. I know many don’t like him but he has a super strong arm and BYU has great receivers. Vs. Bohanan, I trust the coaches on this one

5 Vegas has this game as Kst-7 and the game in the 20s…FYI BYU has out performed in every game this season.

6 This game will boil down to Turnovers, can Retzaiff not meltdown under pressure? Can BYU’s D contain Johnson and slow down KSt’s really good RB, DJ Giddens.

7 I keep going back to BYU DBs playing man, Frees up the LBers to contain the run and hopefully contain Johnson.

8 Remember, this game is not til 8:30 at Les Stadium (on EPSN). Would not want to be the road team!

Predictions…Game in the 20s, very close, say 27-24, not going to say who wins, don’t wanna jinx it.

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I watched the game and kept wondering, what happened to the outside containment player on defense?

One of the things I disliked about Bronco’s defense was the “swarm” mentality, which often led to open space, if the guy got through.

In the old days, that outside linebacker never followed the group, but kept the opposite side of the field “contained”, not sure that is practiced much anymore.

What are your thoughts?

In another article, it said that BYU was taking “shots” downfield in preparation for K-state. Meaning that they expect K-state to stop the run, so let them pay with the long ball.

Not sure if Retzlaff aim is that good for the long ball…

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that’s precisely what Retzaiff is good at.

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I kept on seeing him overthrow the guy by 5 yards, remember the comment you made about Lassitter? He is better than last year, but I am still not convinced he is consistent, but then I am not that smart to know different.

BTW, I keep finding in articles about the BYU vs K-State game that Kalani is always talking about players being banged up (Harper, Nelson, etc.), almost sounds like he is starting to make excuses for losing.
He always makes a point about “not talking about injuries”, only to later say players are “banged up”. Why?

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Jake hasn’t shown the ability to perform under pressure. ARod hasn’t shown the ability to do so either. The D will be tested because the O will be beaten by the K-State D. I think this game is a win for K-State by 2 touchdowns unfortunately. ARod and the offense instill zero confidence in me.

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It will be a miracle this year if we end the season and ARod maintains his job. (He should have been fired last season …. But probably shouldn’t have ever been hired.) I don’t think it will happen and Sitake may go with him …. Hopefully we keep Sitake and lower his salary and pay a legit OC to come in and do offense right. All assistant coaches on offense probably need to be vetted and most need to go bye.

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You might as well add coach Kalani’Sitaki.
Tuiaki ring the bell?

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Fish or Tom,
In the old days, the defense used to always keep someone on the opposite side of the play for containment purposes.

Meaning, if the play somehow switched to that side, there would be someone there to stop the player.

I noticed this in several games this year, that there is no weak side containment. Wondering why?

Any ideas?

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Serious question fish
How ca someone with JRs arm steam it on 20 to 30 yards with precision on many passes throw same target passes 3 to 8 yards the other half of the time?
Rushed?
Yips?

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3 to 8 yards off target

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Sorry to keep going back to the Post game show, but they mentioned that when Retzlaff sets his feet (even on the run) his passes are more precise and accurate, when he doesn’t? well, we all seen what happens in the first series.

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Thanks Floyd. Makes sense.
Goes back to the original premise - can this be taught/corrected?
And if so, why is it taking WAY too long? which suggest the student just can’t/wont change

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resorting back to old habits. When Retzaiff gets his feet right, he is deadly. (looks like Floyd already covered that)

by the way. I am really liking that this game is at 8:30 and at home. That is almost 10 PM start for Kansas.

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I think the biggest problem with Retzlaff is that he struggles to put touch on his throws or to know what kind of throw to make in a specific situation. He throws too hard sometimes, too low or too high other times. He can’t control his adrenalin and he doesn’t always look comfortable out there as a result. He doesn’t seem in control of what is happening. Having said this I do think he makes some good throws and his arm is strong enough to make deep throws so I guess they have to go with that. I just wish he would settle down and get in a rhythm… it never seems like he is so he is unreliable too often.

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Well, the time for talk and discussion is over. We start league on Saturday. As they say, dance with the person you bring to the dance. I pick BYU to win 31-21.

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Found this article on how Gifford Nielson looks at Retzlaff

BYU football: BYU legend sees bright future for Jake Retzlaff – Deseret News

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In terms of statistics, both teams are in the middle of the Big 12 pack for scoring offense, with BYU at ninth and Kansas State at seventh. Defensively, they’re among the top half, with BYU fourth in rushing defense, allowing only 105.7 yards per game, and Kansas State fifth. Their offensive approaches differ significantly: BYU excels in the air, averaging 289.3 passing yards per game, while Kansas State leads the league with 244.3 rushing yards per game.

This game feels like a match up of two opposites. The team that can impose it’s will on the other, wins. That “will” comes from BYU passing, KSU rushing, and QB play.

QB Avery Johnson, tough defense elevating No. 13 Kansas State ahead of Big 12 opener against BYU (msn.com)

Ksu leads the Big 12 in take aways! BYU has to hold onto the ball.

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K State 27-BYU 20

I still have not been convinced our offense can sustain drives against a real team. We have only played one real team this year and it was a complete shizzshow on offense.

Using two small but very fast backs I’d like to see BYU use those backs more in the passing game instead of stupid runs for no gain on first down.

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How about supplying K-st with Cougartails before the game. Just sneak them in and leave them. Irresistible. By the second quarter, sugar rush will crash and they will have no energy :grin:
BYU 24. K-st 17

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Five Reasons BYU can Upset No. 13 Kansas State (msn.com)

I can agree on 4 reasons why BYU can get the upset but 4. BYU’s offensive line proved capable of protecting the QB against an elite defensive line??? I say no.

Will the other 4 reasons matter?

1. BYU should be able to put pressure on Avery Johnson

me: Johnson KILLED Arizona…Killed…I think zona was way overrated coming into 2024. They thought they were the new USC and that was to their demise. So they won their last 8 games last year…K St was rated #13 nationally over the past 3 years. Zona was busy getting beat by BYU and others that have 3 star players. OVERRATED

I don’t think BYU’s D is going to ruin Johnson’s night but Jay Hill will try to slow down K St’s to biggest weapons…Avery Johnson’s legs and RB, DJ Giddens and…

2. Kansas States offense is largely one dimensional

Kansas State is averaging 225 yards per game on the ground behind their three-headed monster of DJ Giddens, Dylan Edwards, and Avery Johnson, but that’s about it for their offense. Avery
Johnson has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game this season while Kansas State managed just 390 yards and 24 points against an Arizona defense that allowed nearly 500 yards and 37 points to New Mexico two weeks earlier. Stopping Kansas State’s ground game is no small task, but BYU has only allowed 1 running back to gain over 35 yards in a game this season. Meanwhile, BYU’s secondary ranks 4th nationally in pass efficiency allowed. If BYU’s run defense comes to play, Kansas State is going to have a tough time moving the ball on Jay Hill’s squad.

And…why an upset?

3. Jake Retzlaff is the kind of quarterback that has given Kansas State problems this year

Can Retziaff buy time to hit receivers? and will he keep the TOs down.

4. BYU’s offensive line proved capable of protecting the QB against an elite defensive line

I’m not a buyer here, sorry

Let the discussion start…will Retziaff sling it or will he play tight, not wanting a pic and his throws by way off target? He has got to play loose and sling it for BYU to win!!!

lastly

5. This is a night game at Lavell Edwards Stadium in September

There is something special about Lavell Edwards Stadium at night, especially in the month of September. BYU is 14-2 in the month of September over the last four seasons and has won four straight September home games against ranked opponents dating back to 2019. An 8:30 kick, whiteout conditions, against a redshirt freshman quarterback in the most hostile environment he will have faced in his career? That has all the makings of a special night in Provo.

Me: so tough to win on the road, add late late night game, add 64,000 insane fans. big advantage BYU

Why BYU wins?
Why K St wins?