Scouting UCF in the Boca Raton Bowl

Football
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Who are the UCF Knights? Meet BYU’s opponent for the Boca Raton Bowl - Deseret News

Can we say Barn Burner? Can we say that BYU is 0-8 in Florida?
Can we also say that Dillon Gabriel has Wilson like numbers and just because the Knights are 6-3, Gabriel has not getting the Heisman love that Wilson is? Can we say that History repeats itself?
UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel knows BYU. His dad beat them, and Ty Detmer, twice - Deseret News

BYU has some NFL talent, UCF has it’s share as well.
QB Gabriel 3,353-30 TDs, 62%, 163 rating, 22 sacks. 139 rushing, 9 games
QB Wilson 3,267-30 TDs, 71%, 196 rating 10 sacks, 242 rushing, 11 games= Wilson Advantage

RB MaCrae 681 yds, 5.2 ypc, 9 TDs, 12 rec-85 yds
RB Allgeier 957 yds, 7.2 ypc, 12, TDs, 11-114 yds= Allgeier Advantage

WR Williams 1039 yds, 14.5 ypc, 10 TDs
WR Milne 1117 yds, 17.7 ypc, 8 TDs= Toss up

Wr Robinson 935-18.3 ypc, 5 TDs
Wr Romney 755-19.9 ypc, 2 TDs= Robinson advantage
I could go on but you get the picture.

Special teams, Oldroyd is 100%, while his counterpart is 65% on the year= Oldroyd big advantage

Defense
UCF has a star Safety, Grant. 72 tackles, 3 interception and 2 forced fumble recoveries
BYU has Kaufusi, LB, 74 tackles, 1 interception and 3 recoveries + one TD.

Total
UCF is 2nd nationally with 586 ypg
BYU is 10th with 510 ypg Advantage UCF

UCF is 117 nationally on defense
BYU is 10th Advantage BYU

Home field goes to UCF, give them a TD + 2.

Bottom line, BYU has got to get some pressure on UCF’s QB, we cannot afford to get behind in a shootout. BYU will score on UCF’s porous defense. They may have 3 losses but were never behind a touchdown in in one and a field goal would of won the other two.

The over/under in this game has to be close to 90 points
You guess the score?

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It looks like a toss up to me that should mirror the game BYU had a few years ago in Florida against Memphis. Hopefully BYU wins this one. Statistically the BYU defense looks good but in reality it is average at best. CFU’s defense isn’t good and the statistics bear that out. Whoever can get a few stops will win. At least I don’t expect CFU to try to grind one out. They will score and score fast based on what they have done all year. BYU has to match scores with them and get one more than they do.

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The correct name of the university BYU will be playing is University of Central Florida or UCF for short, not CFU.

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I am going to go out on a short limb here and say this is a close game on paper and you know what happens 80% of the time when this is the case??? The coaches are the determining factor. BYU defense will be our Achilles heel Offense is good enough but the coaching on defense isn’t.

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So lets hear some scores.

BYU is a -4.5 and leads UCF in most catagories except Home Field and 3rd D conversions

BYU 45-38 UCF if Allgeier plays

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38 UCF - 31 BYU but of course I hope for good defense. I think the issue our defense faces is really bad D Line coaching. They don’t even try to penetrate 95% of the time. They simply try to hold their gap and that just doesn’t work at all when it is all you do.

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Interesting side note to this contest:

The current UCF QB is the son of the QB at Hawaii who took down Detmer in Hawaii…

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I am going with BYU 41, UCF 38.

Not sure our defense could stop a wet paper bag right now. I also worry about the offense and our QB might be thinking of “other” things (like bolting to the NFL).

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You do know that UCF defense is ranked #117
CC ranked #59 and SDSU ranked #14.
You may be right and I am way off (I sure was in the CC game) but I think BYU is going to score.
Of course, if UCF plays the CC time eating clock, they have the players to do it and we would all be wrong. Gonna be a fun game.

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I don’t see UCF playing an eat the clock type game. That is not who they are. They like to throw the ball all over the place.

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BYU 65 UFC 31 going away

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A lot to chew on here.

  1. Gabriel has only thrown for under 300 twice this year–243 yards and 3TD vs Cincy’s top shelf D, and 268 with 2TD in a blowout of Temple when he had only 22 att. His best game was 601 yards and 5TD in a 50-49 loss to Memphis. Gabriel will almost certainly throw for over 300, and if we play our ridiculous soft zone he will do it in a time consuming manner that will tempt many BYU fans to give up watching football forever. If we pressure him, UCF will get a few quick scores but we can also mess up a few of their drives. People HAVE to understand that BYU’s “base D” is DESIGNED to concede yards and TOP. It is DESIGNED to allow long drives in the hopes of a penalty or turnover ruining the drive. This is BY FAR the best O and best QB we have seen all year, and we saw what CC’s slightly better than average offense did to us and how SDSU controlled the ball the entire game. The difference is that SDSU’s offense sucks, so they messed up a couple drives.
  2. UCF has allowed 22 sacks. Not a ton, but enough to be vulnerable to pressure. If we bring pressure, we will wreck a few of their drives. Of course UCF will still score a lot but will also score faster when they do, and BYU will have plenty of time to score a lot of points. If BYU plays the soft D we are all used to seeing, UCF will take what BYU gives them, control the ball, and a MUCH better offense than CC will hang at least 40 on BYU, but BYU won’t be able to score 40 if we only have 20-24 minutes TOP, especially because Grimes should easily be able to establish the run with Allgeier against a bad run defense, and we may have a couple time-consuming TD drives of our own as a result.
  3. UCF plays NO defense. In its last game, UCF beat South Florida, legitimately one of the worst teams in the country, 58-46 (South Florida is 1-8 with no wins vs FBS teams). South Florida put 650–yes, 650 yards on UCF. UCF is allergic to defense. South Florida has a crappy offense and put 46 points and 650 yards on UCF. South Florida’s QB had only thrown for over 200 yards ONCE all season, and went 32/46 for 404 and 4TDs vs UCF. If we have the ball 30 minutes, we can hang 50 on them, but that’s not gonna happen if UCF has the ball 38 minutes like CC and SDSU did.
  4. UCF has played 4 teams with winning records (Tulane, Cincy, Memphis, and Tulsa). All 4 scored over 30.

Prediction:
With Soft BYU D: UCF 41, BYU 34
With aggressive BYU D: BYU 48, UCF 41

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This is more of a home game for UCF-not much travel-so I give them 6 points there. I give BYU the edge defensively by 6 points. Both teams can score, so if Romney plays and Allgeier plays I give BYU the edge by 3 with their OL protecting better and facilitating the run game better. Unknowns that factor in-penalties-hopefully not a Florida crew. Turnovers are directly related to defensive pressure. 45-38 BYU

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you inspire me Tom. hahaha
Something i forgot to mention. The CC game was taken on such short notice that I don’t think Sitake and Co. really knew what their game plan was going to be. They played, as you say, prevent defense when they should of been getting into the face of a red shirt Fr. QB. I was furious when we made 0 defensive changes all freckin game long. BYU did learn it’s lesion from the loss, putting 5 and 6 guys on the line most of the SDSU game. If I was a DC, I would always have someone, it may be a LB or even a DB on a delay but I would always have someone keeping that QB occupied so he did not have time for a bomb and would only have to resort to dinks and dives. SDSU really pounded Wilson and CC really pounded Wilson, Those were the two lowest outputs for BYU all season long.

BYU’s coaches will have plenty of film and time to learn UCF’s tendencies, so use it and shake things up. With Milne, Pau’u. Rex, Romney and Allgeier, BYU should tear things up. So excited.

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I normally don’t like to predict what the score is going to be and would love to see BYU win.

But I will predict that Coach
KS childhood friend or cousin will play 3 - 8 defense100% of the time because somebody said UCF like to throw a lot everywhere.

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Yes, that is correct. How do I know? Because I researched their team and included them in my argument regarding the CFP. UCF went undefeated 2 seasons in a row, including the second season when they beat Auburn in their bowl game. That same Auburn team had beaten eventual champion Alabama by 2 TD’s a month earlier. UCF is not part of a P5 conference, that explains it all.

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I wasn’t replying to you.

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Was Auburn in the bowl game the only P5 they beat in 2 years?

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Yeah, I know. Does that mean I can’t reply to your comment?

No. I seize every opportunity I get. :crazy_face:

As far as your Auburn - P5 - bowl game rhetorical question goes the answer would be yes, Auburn was the only P5 team they beat during those 2 years. Obviously for UCF and ANY other non P5 team it is important that they DON’T play P5 teams because that might make it difficult to justify the FACT that NO non P5 team has made the CFP since its’ inception. Besides, at the end of their second undefeated season they were destroyed by LSU 40-32 in a blowout thus solidifying the reality that no non P5 team should ever be allowed into the CFP. We all know that is true, right?

Be careful asking a rhetorical question that you already know the answer to, it can prove something none of us wants to accept or believe, but is still a stark reality. :wink:

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An answer of a little man… be nice. You know what nice is…:face_with_monocle: