Speaking of next year

Basketball
1

TJ and Mika are both back and starting preps already.
Taking away Seljaas, Austin, Fischer, and KC the players who played against Valpo who will therefore almost certainly start or get major minutes at the start of next season
Davis 23 minutes
Kaufusi 17 minutes
Emery 37 minutes
Chatman 9 minutes
Hartsock 5 minutes

Pretty much a traditional starting 5.
Brig, who redshirted this year will probably be the third starting guard with Emery and Chatman with Hartsock coming off the bench again.

By the end of the year talent usually wins out for minutes for Rose.
I suspect Childs, Mika, TJ, Emery, Brig for the majority of minutes with major minutes for Chatman, CK, Dastrup, and Davis
.

Hartsock remains a puzzle.
Aytes, Shaw, Hamson, and Guinn get the garbage time the younger and less talented get.
Davis will be the only senior. So the team will be together for most likely two years.
The third year Aytes, Guinn, CK, and Brig will be gone.
So next years end of the year starters will likely be three year starters. No wonder why Rose thinks the future is rosy…
Rose should have the talented bigs and smalls to avoid the 4 smalls lineups and given speed in the backcourt, TJ, Emery, and Brig, might even be able to go large stretches with talented bigs enough to snuff the smaller guard oriented WCC teams and actually prepare for deep NCAA runs.
It would be a pleasure to see the Cougs crush Coach Kry in the dance,if only it would work out that way.

2

Guess I was stating the somewhat obvious…
“As for who I think starts? As things currently stand, I’d start Elijah Bryant, Nick Emery, Jordan Chatman, Kyle Davis, and Corbin Kaufusi.” BYU basketball's 2016-17 roster problem and how Dave Rose will fix it this offseason - Vanquish The Foe

3

I think you are really close. Until Chapman shows something special he will be a role player. I think he has really good potential but a role player he is. I am intrigued by the possibility of Rick Berry’s kid as a graduate transfer. I find that fascinating. And BYU has his graduate courses. With Toolsen not returning, as it sounds now, I think a situation sounds really promising. I cant wait to see TJ and Bryant. If this group can learn to play as a cohesive unit, you will see killer instinct in a real dimension.
Jeff

4

I don’t think Utah has a great shot at making the ncaa tourney next year, except for the fact that they are in the pac-12. Wait, that gives them a very good chance, even if they are a mediocre team.

I am only looking at one step at a time, and that first step is to actually win the wcc, regular season or tourney, makes no difference to me. When they have actually accomplished that goal, which I still believe is shaky at best, then I will think about playing and beating Utah in the ncaa tourney.

One thing about looking ahead is that we often tend to look too far ahead and hope for things that likely won’t happen.

That is all…

5

Canyon Barry - the Granny Shot at the line? That would be weird. When I was 15 and watching Rick Berry doing his Granny Shot was strange but it works for him and won the NBA title for Golden State. We will see if Dave Rose land him here as graduate transfer.

6

uh…no…not actually. BYU has danced 3 of the last five years without ever actually doing either of those.

I think Yoeli Childs and Hartsock are likely to get the SF position.
Yoeli’s dramatic rise in ESPN’s recruit rankings were because he picked up an outside shot. He has NBA aspirations, and oh by the way that means he too small to get a really got shot as a paint player. The outside shot is also what both Rose and JP have both said is Hartsock’s strength…despite what we saw on the floor this year…so with Childs and Hartsock and all the bigger players in the paint the VtF hole might be a hole in analysis more than a hole in the team as Rose sees it. I would be interested to know if anyone has seen or heard Rose talk about Child’s possible role on the team this next season.

7

Mika will start. TJ will start. Davis will start.

8

Yes… I know this already. I also know that they didn’t show very well in any of those years. First round exits don’t go a long way to making a name for your team. One of the things that might have helped them, as opposed to sneaking in as an at-large team, would be to enter the tournament with a bit of momentum and confidence. That is one of the reasons Gonzaga does so well… the wcc infuses them with confidence and momentum and it carries over in the ncaa tournament.

So… in my ever so humble opinion, actually winning something meaningful will help them, not hurt them. The only reason they did so well in the NIT is because they played 3 straight home games before playing an awful first half away from the MC… and losing to the team that lost the final by 16 points.

9

Are you talking about Kyle Davis? I have to be honest here for a minute, like I am every time, I don’t think Davis was all that helpful or effective this season. He played softer as the season wore on, his free throw shooting was horrendous, his assist to turnover ratio was bad (2 assists for every 3 TO’s) and he missed so many easy shots close to the basket. I thought he was supposed to really contribute and be a force… I just never saw it myself.

I just wish BYU had a big man that wasn’t afraid to get physical inside and establish a presence. When is the last time we had that? Mika?

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10

I would love to see a starting line-up of Dastrup, Childs, Mika, Emery, and Haws. That would mean two of the freshmen would be better than two of the returning starters. I suspect Davis will start due to experience until the newcomers get some experience. Four of the above 5 are top 50 recruits and the other one a top 100 recruit. The only problem is that 3 of them haven;'t played any college basketball yet and one of them hasn’t played for 2 years.

I think in time there could be some great chemistry on the BYU team with the re-union of the Lone Peak guys. Anybody bellyaching about recruiting is clueless regardless of where these guys came from. If BYU can’t win then it will have nothing to do with talent.

The five I mentioned at the beginning of the first paragraph are all highly regarded recruits but they are not Kentucky type recruits that can immediately take a team to a final four. There are only a handful of teams that can get that kind of talent and it undoubtedly requires shady recruiting to do it and no thought for educating the alleged student athlete.

It could be 2017-2018 before we see major improvement and a sweet 16 caliber team. I think next year could be about like this year or a little better. There is lots of talent but this will be a very young team in terms of experience and I hope people are patient. A NCAA tournament bid and a win in the tournament would be a good year. If these guys stay together for 2-3 years big things should be on the horizon.

I think Chatman and Bryant will play big minutes next year. Both have experience and some talent.

The nine man rotation should be:

Guards:

Emery - point or wing
Haws - point or wing
Bryant - point
Chatman - wing

Post Players:

Mika
Davis
Kaufusi
Dastrup

Post & Wing:

Childs

Hartsock could be a factor if there are injuries and some of the newcomers aren’t ready yet. If Aytes could ever get healthy he could be a factor but BYU will be loaded with post players…The one thin area is wing. There are plenty of guys who can play point guard or post.

In terms of who is leaving and who is coming in I would say MIka and Dastrup will make the loss of Austin irrelevant. BYU will be much better in the post.

There is nobody who can step into Collinsworth’s role. He was one of a kind. He could play anywhere on the court and do everything except shoot outside and make free throws consistently.

Haws replaces Fischer and I think people can’t conclude that Haws will immediately be better than Fischer. Fischer was a fifth year senior. If Haws can be as good next year that will fine. In time he should be better, maybe much better.

Selejass will be gone for 2 years. From all reports BYU gets a really outstanding true freshman in Childs but he is a different type of player than Selejass. He is a post player but allegedly developed a good 3 point shot and can play inside and out. He is 6’6" and about 220 lbs. so he has plenty of bulk and is athletic. BYU also gets Bryant who is a point guard but a big one at 6’5" 210 lbs. He has division one experience and has proven he can play. I think those two probably more than offset the loss of Selejass but neither is the same type of player.

Emery should be greatly improved and I expect him to be a star next year. I believe Chatman will be greatly improved. The improvement in some of the young players who played this year and the infusion of new talent should make up for the loss of Collinsworth and BYU should be as good or a little better than this past season. Beyond next year there is the potential for the best basketball ever seen at BYU.

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11

I think tha Hartsock and Childs will be getting the wing minutes because
Near the middle of the conference season when Rose mixed things up a bit Hartsock started.
Seljaas recovered from his injury so Rose gave Seljaas the wing time because he was clearly better the JP was at least offensively.
The wing was mostly Seljaas the last month or so of games with JPHartsock getting more minutes than he had during the first part of conference.
I expect Childs to be better than Hartsock just like Seljaas was. Hartsock has a years worth of experience in practice but only 146 minutes on the court so it’s not so much of an experience gap so much as a knowledge gap.

12

I am hopeful and, at this point, willing to go along with your analysis and perspective. I am excited, if for nothing else, because you are so convincing and I can’t really find anything that I disagree with.

I am still skeptical about whether or not BYU can actually win a wcc tournament or title. I won’t rehash why because I think everyone knows my feelings for why that hasn’t happened and why I think it is difficult at best and impossible at worst for that to happen.

I see a lot of highly touted talent and potential. I really hope that none of these players are anticipating being the focal point or star and that they buy into the success they can have playing as a unified team, realizing that ultimate success will come when they focus on the success of their teammates and not themselves.

13

I am probably a little more optimistic than you are. I may be really underestimating.how good BYU will be next year based on talent, but so much of it is unproven I was being cautious in my assessment. Next year could also be a big disappointment if there are a few key injuries and some good players unexpectedly leave for various reasons. I think Aytes, Guinn, and Shaw could all leave without any consequence at all if the team stayed healthy. That isn’t any knock on any of them. Aytes and Shaw could contribute on thinner teams and if injuries strike I don’t think either would be bad as a a third or fourth man off the bench.

Another thing to remember is that Gonzaga and St. Mary’s will both be good again. I don’t think Gonzaga loses much except Wiltjer and they will get Karnowsky back. The top three in the conference will be really good. St. Marys gets everybody back.

I really think the Lone Peak boys will be team players. None was clearly the top dog in high school above the other two and I think they have the team first culture ingrained in them. They won multiple state championships and beat top high school teams from all over the country and they did it by team effort often beating more athletic inner city teams. They know how to win and I think having them all together for the first time could be great and they could all be together for least three years unless one or more them go pro. early. We haven’t seen Haws yet but both Mika and Emery are really tough kids who are great competitors.

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14

Can former LP Talon Shumway play small forward? I know he is playing football at the Y. Just a thought and inmagine two football players on the same team for BB.

15

While I agree that he, along with others, missed lots of layups and easy short shots. That’s what happens when you miss a year. Next year, his concentration will be a lot better. Even with that, he had many double doubles and led with rebounding and block shots. He will start next year.

16

you read my mind…will BYU be better in 2017?

I was going to post that Childs will, with time, eat up Davis minutes. Davis may be a senior but he has no low post moves. Does OK against smaller WCC teams but really suffers against Dance teams like the Zags with good big men. Davis is also very poor at assists and FTs. Basically a solid player that will be good to spell better players in Dastrup and Childs.

Mika will completely make us forget grad. Austin. I see Mika playing center with Rose’s like for 3 and 4 guard likeups where speed and quick strike are our forte, or he will rotate to P Forward when Rose needs to go big with Kaufusi.

Starters at the beginning of the season:
Emery-wing
Bryant-point
Chatman-
Mika
Davis

Starters by the Conference play or at end:
Emery
TJ
Bryant or Childs or Dastrup
Mika
Dastrup or Kaufusi or Childs or Davis

Major minutes by
Davis
Kaufusi
Dastrup
Chatman
possibly Hartsock
Beo?

BYU’s shooting and FT % should jump significantly with KC, Austin graduating and Davis not carrying as many minutes. Our turnovers should go down as KC and Fischer (a finisher and very poor passer) move on and Davis losing minutes to Childs, Dastrup and Kaufusi. TJ, Emery, Chatman and Beo will shoot a zillion 3s to help us ease the pain of losing Seljaas and Fischer.

BYU will greatly miss KC’s play making and penetration. Guys to replace him are Bryant, Emery and TJ.

BYU will FINALLY have a legit low post game with Mika, Kaufusi, Dastrup and Childs. (Hartsock)

Odd men out will be Aytes, Shaw, Hamson

One thing that is clear to me is that this team will be Lone Peak plus two…basically more of the same BYU high scoring but with a better inside game. Give this team a year to get up to speed and they will be formidable.

Gonzaga will lose Sabonis and Wiltjar but will be stocked for another big year. SMC will be better but they are slow and unathletic. (win at home, lose on the road).

17

Next year will be interesting. Based on what we saw this year from Rose, I’m more with Jim. Will Rose give everyone a real shot to play, develop and show what they can do in games. We have a real possibility to be crazy deep. Not one player couldn’t be on the floor. I’m going to be interested in what happens with Hamson. Will he stay or will he go? Has he put on strength and weight?

If Rose develops this team right, we will be able match up with any team. We can go small, we can go 3 guards or 3 bigs. Will Kaufusi develop a midrange shot? Will Mika be a 4 or a 5? Will Davis learn to make his short flip shot on a consistant basis? A lot up in the air. But I like the possibilities!

I would say that TJ will be starting the entire year. Just saying…

18

The season he played, Rose had Mika playing 25.6 minutes a game on average. The only games he wasn’t really close to that average were against the smallest quickest teams.

Mika played almost exactly the same amount of time at forward as at center though Rose had him listed on the roster as a forward. Austin got the majority of the minutes at center with Mika and Worthington sharing the rest of the center time. Forward time went to Mika and Worthington with Sharp and Haws and KC pulling some minutes as well.

With the true centers Kaufusi and Hamsen. I expect to see Davis’s minutes giving them up to Mika, assuming his mission recovery goes as well as Haws/KC and not like Chatman’s or the host of others.

19

I am afraid that Rose will start Davis just because he likes to play seniors. Interesting stat: Davis and any other player lineup was the least productive of the year. Chatman along with Kaufusi…a plus 18 pts rating. go figure.

That is the reason why I have a start of year lineup vs. a playoff starting lineup.

Here’s some info on Bryant

For Rose’s offense to shine, you have to hit 3s and Bryant surely does that.

20

Can somebody verify that hell has indeed, frozen over?