It looks to me that BYU will end the season with 8 or 9 losses and 22 or so wins. Last year BYU had 10 losses in regular season as well as 2016. We have been trending a flat line since the Jimmer Years (so much for the coaching vs. talent arguement)
Once again we suffered the 2 bottom feeder losses, the infamous back to back losses that doom our ratings and chance to dance. It is a Rose signature.
BYU outperformed in 2 games in the 2016 season…a win over NM -5 and Gonzaga -7.5. BYU underperformed in 5 games starting with LB st. 2017…outperformed in 2 games, @Gonzaga -27.5 and @ SF-2.5. BYU underperformed in 6 games
This season BYU has outperformed in 2 games, @ UVU and @ USU. My entire point is that looking at BYU, Rose rarely outperforms and always underperforms. He is not moving the bar one way or another.
Last season St Marys really beat us up in the WCC tourny 81-50, needless to say, we did not play much D last year.
If we could of kept Chatman from transferring, I would give BYU 3 more wins this year and a 8 seed to the big dance. As it sits today, Dastrup is in the same boat. Most likely he will transfer because I can’t imagine staying around with the coaching head games they play with him. My point is this…Rose leaks talent by not developing talent. We end up in a constant rebuilding cycle. If Dastrup can get traction and stay at BYU, we have a change to be ranked all year and get a very seed to the NCAA.
Finally, I think Schroyer has made a huge difference in the BYU game. I thnk our talent is close to what we had last year but our defense is way up and that translates into several more wins and most likely a longer run in post season NIT play.
And if we can keep everyone coming back and healthy, BYU should have a good year and a chance to contend for once.
One problem, how can we compate against those wcc 8 players every road games like Jim Hawks has been saying. We saw what happeneded many times toward the end of the game on the road.
I sure hope to see Payton Datstrup stay at the Y but if I were him, I would follow what other guys did FB4, Jake Toolson, Beo, Jordan ChaTMAN (not ChaPman). I sure love the Jeff Chatman family.
I’ll be watching intently to see how this team improves it’s understanding of the new system next year. That will be the most telling bit.
Actually…It might be lineups. I’m sorry but we have to find an edge here and we’re leaving wins on the table because we mismanage the lineups. We have what it takes to win the WCC if we use the tools we have to their fullest.
Hardnet
Haws
Bryant
Yo
Dastrup
Big, good rebounding, better passing, and everyone can shoot from 3. Even Haws is getting much better at staying in front of his man. If you have to go with a faster big lineup you could nixon and yo. If we need to worry about defense a little more we can put Luke in. Bergerson, Seljias and cannon back up the guards.
I agree with 98% of what fish said in his comment. We have to develop the freshman and one year returned missionaries. Rose simply isn’t doing that to the extent he should. We can’t give up on guys until they have completed 2 years in the program and Rose does that every year. Bergeson may be a player but Rose won’t give him time. Beo was a player and Chatman was a player. Beo was a better freshman than Chatman. Just very discouraged overall with coach Rose. We should have a better program than we do. Rose can’t recruit bigs who can play except Mika. I think Mika is the only true big that Rose landed in his entire BYU career. It is just a labor in mediocrity!! As long as Holmoe is satisfied with 3rd and 4th place finishes in the WCC that is exactly what we will get.
I appreciate the comments and input from fish, clausewitz, thawk, dew, aro, the larimer’s and many other posters who care about the state of BYU basketball right now and continue to hope that it can improve.
I appreciate grasshopper’s comments as well, I just wish he was more concerned about the same things as the rest of us are. He is totally fine with the way things are, offers no suggestions for how the team can get better or how they might stop doing the same things year after year in this increasingly frustrating wcc.
I just don’t know how a real fan can be content with mediocrity.
That is a great description of modern Div1 bball…Some coaches have adjusted better than others. Some like Bennett at SMC by focusing on foreign players have minimized the effect.
Still bugs me that the early years of the Dave Rose era had a good sprinkling of foreign players…but he got rid of the coach who was the major recruiter and never replaced the international supply…no sense to it that I can see.
Another mistake that is part of a long, generally successful career that has been mired in mediocrity for the past half decade.
It makes me wonder, a lot, if he is really as good as the record indicates or if he has relied on players like Jimmer to carry the team. Just when it appeared BYU had gone back to the team concept of playing they revert back to hero ball. That is a sign that things really aren’t right.
It does cross my mind: which is why I went and looked at his record in the WCC years.Just the WCC years he’s in the top 20% or near of all Div1 coaches.
Not as good as the MWC years where he was in the top 1.5-2%. But still not shabby. Just shabby in comparison to his own high standard.
I remember Maryland winning the national championship and Gary William’s career never recovered. Rose never got so high…but winning changes coaches. The HoF has many coaches who are there for a few great seasons out of long careers with only better than average results.
Can Rose get there? I used to think so…now the longer the plateau continues the more I doubt.
The WCC represents 3 really good teams, 2 OK teams, SF and San Diego, and a bunch of really bad teams. It is safe to say that BYU has under performed every single year that we have played in the WCC, including the Fredette year. (Deli sinks the last second half court shot)
Those MW teams were balanced top to bottom, were always fun to watch, there was high drama until the end. The WCC, just not a good product. BYU was meant to land for a couple of years and then be added to the big 12 or Pac 12 but that evaporated. Rose would most likely tell you that his biggest bitter pill is that he was thrown to the wolves by the football Indy and stuck recruiting in the WCC. Larimer has articulated the state of BYU basketball very well from that aspect.
As it sits today, Gonzaga may be ranked #12 but they are not very good, tons of talent but lacking playing together. Perkins is no Kevin Pangos, too much "Me " on the team. SMC #11 will fall apart if Landale has a bad game or sprains a ankle. BYU surprising enough has the most upside of all three.
Jim,
Do you ever watch Sports Nation on KBYU? It the show with the Two youngsters…
They had a bit about BYU basketball state of affairs the other day (I think it was Monday or Tuesday), that made me think of you. some of their comments reflected some of yours…
They explained some things that might help understand what is going on, but the basis of the idea is that only two or three people are being consistent in Scoring (Haws, Bryant and Childs) while the rest of the players shooting consistency is way down…
Not sure if you could google it, but I think you might enjoy their segment on the basketball team. They did not hold much back.
Unless I can’t read these days Fredette never played a WCC league schedule.
But that BYU has underperformed both its expectations and it talent level is I believe true.
In the MWC years, BYU regularly overperformed its expectations…I’ve wondered what changed. I suspect that the change in the Few-Rose relationship made a bigger difference than we imagine.
I looked for it but didn’t find it. If somebody finds it, I would appreciate a link. Sounds interesting. I love it when the BYU Commentariat breaks ranks and says it like it is. Most of the time they pull their punches.
Also, I’d quibble on Haws’ efficiency on scoring but he has improved recently.
I have seen it a few times. The problem is that it comes on when I am at work so I don’t get to see it much.
Those guys are usually BYU apologists, never criticizing anything. I am worn out with talking about the things that I think could improve the team and am left with a choice between two options.
I continue to root for and cheer on a team that will never perform at expected levels or higher. I can root for a coach that is content with 20 win seasons and NIT bids, as well as playing his favorites and not the players that will make the team better.
I can root for a team that doesn’t do the things I listed above.
I watched a little of the St. Marys/Gonzaga game… Gonzaga dominated the part of the game I saw and I finally turned it off about midway through the 2nd half with Gonzaga leading by about 20… It is the first time I have seen them this year. They looked real good and maybe they are peaking at the right time. Every time Landale got the ball he was surrounded by 2-3 players and was in no position to take a shot. Gonzaga did a good job covering the shooters and St. Marys had no answer for Hachimurai. He looks like a load. He is big and physical and very quick. Frankly I don’t think BYU would have an answer for him either. He is nearly as big as Childs and quicker. He is bigger than Bryant and quicker. The way he looked against St. Marys he could go off for 30 against BYU. He is about 6’8" 225, very skilled and very quick and he comes off the bench. Where has he been all year? He look like the best Gonzaga player by far.
After watching that game I just about kissed our very slim chances of making the NCAA goodbye. I see no way BYU beats both St. Marys and Gonzaga in the post season tournament and that looks like the only avenue of making the tournament.
St. Marys didn’t appear to have the quickness to match up well with Gonzaga. I thought Gonzaga had a great plan to neutralize Landale and they did a good job covering the shooters and collapsing on Landale and speeding up the game and making St. Marys play one on one which is definitely not their game.
I didn’t think Landale played poorly. He only took 4 shots because he could never get in a good position to score. I would credit that to an excellent scheme to defend him. If you look at his overall stat line he got 10 rebounds, 4 blocked shots, and 4 assists. He hit 2 out of 4 from the field. It is not like he missed a whole bunch of shots.
Harshimoura finally had a great game. He has been a mess most of the year. But yeah Gonzaga had a plan and they shut down Landale and that was the end of that game
Few did the same thing to Byu when they doubled Eli all game and knowing Few, he will do it again to us. Even when his guys are not playing well, Few always gets his kids to play defense. Something Few does well that I have always believed is…you do not give equal weight to all players. You smother their best with double teams and make the weakest players beat you. On BYU, I would smother Eli and Yo and make a Seljaas or Hardnett beat you.
JH: Good post, the HC is on the down slide of his career. Good guy but he is going down the other side of the coaching hill. Age 60 is a good retirement age for Rose. Perhaps he gets 1-2 more years, next year the one after with the guys when they become seniors. If he don’t produce better by then, Bye, bye.
I’m concerned by this take. As I see it, Rose just needs to break free from his past thinking. Which he is doing by hiring Schroyer and completely revamping the system on both sides of the ball and, if I understand it correctly, on recruiting.
Think about it guys. He lost his two best players suddenly and early because of the players’ own decisions, not his. He completely changed the team philosophy because he recognized what he was doing was flawed and needed a change (even if I don’t think he’s done a great job at staying the course sometimes) and he’s still winning. Not as high as I want, but given what the team is going through, I’m happy with that.
I’ve been just as critical, if not as pessimistic, as anyone else here, but calling to fire the best coach we’ve had at BYU seems reactionairy. Check our records for yourself. Rose is the best coach we’ve had. Now there are a few guys who I would trust to fill in and I think could do very well, but still.